Fast and Furious

HERE IT COMES
Wow, change, change, change, no not the incessant anti-pedantic russlings of every candidate, but the change in the lineup itself. Fred Thompson, the reluctant candidate looking for a leading role led ineptly by the former advisor to the 1996 Bob Dole campaign, a campaign likely the least vigorous campaign since McKinley drank lemonade on his front porch.

Kucinich, was summoned back to his home planet, destined to finally do some work for his district also left the race, leaving people to wonder if a vegan will ever be a viable candidate in a country full of meat eaters and milk drinkers.
The demise of these two candidates of course leaves IN TOUCH and US Magazine readers pondering when the next photogenic first lady will grace Pennsylania Avenue and Maxim readers devoid of a FLILF.

KISS HIM GOODBYE
Wow, seems like just yesterday the Lord of New York was the frontrunner. Rudy was the tough guy who didn't want to fight. The guy in the bar who starts something and walks away, leaving his friends with a fight and the check.

Rudy was used to being the boss and frankly in a campaign you aren't the boss. You need to listen and work, shake hands and grovel with common folks. The irony of a Giuliani campaign is that it seems like he forgot where he came from, middle class kid, who did well in school, always the smartest guy in the room.

He became the political bully, surrounding himself with sycophants and hangers-on. Rudy saw himself as untouchable, the primary elections an inconvenience on his way to controlling the most power war machine and national security appartus of all time, along with the largest chest of treasure.

In some ways, Giuliani's campaign aimed itself at the same type of voter that may have voted for McCain, the more socially moderate, but strong national security candidates, lacking in evangelical credentials. McCain however, McCain is a real hero, not a manufactured hero. Rudy's exploits and tough talk after the assault on America is rhetoric in the face of McCain's heroism and with everything else even, McCain's history of being able to work across the aisle make him a far more electable candidate in the general election for moderates and independents despite his age.

JOHNNY BE GONE?
So my endorsements don't mean much and absent a huge surge by Mike Gravel on Super Duper Tuesday, history will be made in Denver when the Democrats nominate either a person of color or woman for candidacy for the Presidency of the United States. (unless some weird Draft Gore campaign begins) John saw his weakness in his home state of South Carolina and later in the beauty contest in Florida. It will be interesting to see what role he will play in the rest of the campaign, what he brings to the convention and what his future is in American politics.

The polls for Feb. 5th must have gotten to him, the power of the Obama and Clinton campaigns, the real star power eclipsed this son of millworkers. More on Johnny later, but on to SUPER DUPER TUESDAY, my biggest blogging day of the year. I don't think my primary vote in Massachusetts has ever mattered, it's nice to have a little voice in this whole thing.

On to Super Duper Scooper Tuesday

Caucuses Suck
In the list of things I hate politically, caucuses are among them. Likely the most undemocratic of events, posed as a Norman Rockwellesque town meeting to select the right candidates. For those of us who are somewhat politically active, our own caucuses which are relatively low stakes (delegates to the state convention) can be incredibly painful, especially as Democrats, we are expected to listen to every crackpot speaker who has an ax to grind, whether it be related to the topic at hand or not.

Caucuses create an opportunity for the political bully, it may not be physical intimidation, it certainly can be mental torture, grinding down others until they "see it your way". The lack of a private vote behind a curtain sets the stage for all kinds of manipulation, by peers, by supervisors and bosses, etc and certainly a short span of time for party members to show up and vote. What happens to those party members that are hampered by caretaking issues? Those that may usually show up at 7 to vote or 8 in the evening on the way to or from work?

A prime example of the effect that a small number of voters can have in caucuses is in Nevada. Last Saturday, senator McCain got 6 times in SC as many votes as Romney in Nevada. However, Mittster gets 18 delegates, McCain 13 (many lost due to the penalized rescheduling of the primary) Along with the the effect of superdelegates, representative democracy in the primaries for both parties is being lost.

Menino's Marbles Massachusetts Municipal Message
Recently, Mayor Menino gave his state of the city address. I didn't listen because frankly he's difficult to listen to. It's not his speech pattern but generally his tendency not to take responsibility when any problem hits the city. It it's a snowstorm that paralyzes the city, it's the state's fault, schools underperforming, the state's fault for underfunding. There is a general feeling in municipalities is that proposition 2 1/2 and "unfunded mandates" have paralyzed cities and towns. Along with the cost of healthcare, certainly many cities and towns in Massachusetts are in a bad way, fixed costs such as healthcare and energy increase by huge percentages while revenues do not. However in Boston, with it's huge tax base this isn't the same type of problem as smaller cities and towns.

There's always a host of people for Tom to blame for the city's problems, this is a major fault of leadership among politicians, strong leaders take responsibility for what goes wrong. Take responsibility in public, go and chew out who's actually responsible and make sure it doesn't happen again. Menino has been called the urban mechanic, the guy who keeps the city running, certainly 4 terms is a bit much for someone to maintain a city. Where is the innovation? Is the biggest new idea picking up lawn chairs and cones after a snowstorm? Where is the innovation in negotiating with the powerful public employee unions, to give better services for residents and better use of the public dime?

Certainly the mayor runs the city with an iron fist, there is little patience for those who oppose him and occasionally he will make bizarre comments such as the one about the "Minute Clinics" at pharmacies, "allowing business to make money off sick people." I'm not sure if da Mayor has looked around but outside of higher education, that's Boston's biggest business. Certainly a parent who doesn't want to beg for an appointment with his physician for poison ivy or spend a day waiting in an emergency room for a minor malady will celebrate the opportunity for a quick visit to CVS instead of missing an entire day of work and school.

In November 2009, the Mayor and his machine will likely dominate the mayoral campaign, it is nearly political suicide for any candidate to take up the opportunity to run. It is unknown when a New Boston will rise from this current mucked up, non-innovative machine.


Hunter Gets Captured by the Game
Probably one of the most disappointing things for many people is realizing that the author of Fear and Loathing was actually deceased and not tossed his hat in the ring for the GOP nomination. Hunter S. Thompson would have been a fascinating candidate and a interesting libertarian alternative to Ron Paul. But it was Duncan Hunter, and outside of a few red meat conservatives, he had little chance. Being good friends with Duke Cunningham likely didn't help things as often we are judged by the company that we keep, certainly Duncan was never accused of being dirty, more by association. Who's this help? Well, some military conservatives may go to McCain, but let's be honest, this was going nowhere.

ONTO GOD'S WAITING ROOM
The race on both sides is pretty tight, for Republicans however it is wider and tighter. Looking at the scoreboard, Governor Romney is leading in delegates, but has yet to gain the Mittmentum to carry him into SuperDuper Tuesday. McCain and Huckleberry also continue to be in the fray for leadership but mostly it's virtually a game of Risk as the leaders try to knock out Thompson and Paul who are holding on to some lesser territories hoping for a helluva roll if they survive the next turn.

Rudy has been the non-factor so far, his strategy is to come in later in the race, missing some of the early rounds and score big in Florida and gain momentum on the way to February 5th. As the other candidates have been knocking the hacky sack around, Rudy's been fiddling around with the stereo, hoping to score with some drunk co-ed's who just finished the 2 liter of wine coolers, the new "attractive" candidate that's come late to the party.

Florida is an interesting place for a Republican campaign, lots of elderly folks who are from somewhere else, some coming with more "cosmopolitan" interests, folks who are more likely to be concerned with the solvency of social security in the near future rather than privatization or other schemes, Cuban Americans as well as "southern" Florida which is actually central and northern Florida which tends to be more, well how should I put it, more "culturally" and "socially" conservative. So watch for Rudy to be the tough guy of tough guys here, and play the Rudy drinking game, everytime he says, 9/11, kill, hunt or any other violent word, have a little drink with me.

SATURDAY SHOWDOWN IN THE PALMETTO STATE
This is a big day for Obama, in fact much bigger for him than for HRC. As the big two begin to stretch a space between themselves and John Edwards, Obama needs the momentum from South Carolina as the quasi-national primary takes place on Feb. 5th. It's a bigger day for Obama because many of the states on Feb. 5th are running strong for Clinton due to her strength among the "Democratic Establishment". Expectations are huge for Obama, who will need to run strong among African Americans to set the stage to leapfrog into later primaries. For John Edwards, it is a matter of survival, as the southern white male battles a Yankee woman and a black man for his own viability as a candidate in the cradle of the Confederacy, who woulda thought? There was a powerful effort to force the race issue into the debate, a debate like all the others, high on rhetoric and low on solutions and policy. Still waiting, still waiting.

Going South

BABY MAMA DRAMA

Here we go again, the Comeback Kid revisited. OK, so she was ahead in NH for months until the Iowa Caucuses swept Obama into newly minted favorite status. A couple of days later a fickle New Hampshire, likely led by a propensity of not liking to be to told what to think or do, went in a different direction point, bring Senator Turn a Tear to a resounding 2 percentage point vote.

So it's off to a state where people actually live and work as we start the slow climb to the super duper primary on February 5th. Lost over the next 4 weeks are the retail politics of New Hampshire and Iowa as the remaining front runners must battle for millions of votes, and not just who decided to do some test drives at Des Moines Toyota or dropping off some old paint cans at the Dover transfer station. Here is where the battle of star power, Hillary and Barack vs. the uphill battle of multi-millionaire populist southern senator John Edwards comes to a head.

For the GOP, New Hampshire voters came out and put McCain on top, further frustrating the deep pockets of Governor Romney who was hit from the right in Iowa as evangelicals and from the middle in New Hampshire. While the former Governor remains ahead in the delegate count at this early date, these "most days in second place", don't bode well as the race moves into South Carolina with it's large evangelical and veteran populations, Florida, where Giuliani may start to matter, and Michigan, a Romney home state with polls in a virtual three way tie. Romney, of course, has the benefit of a man with deep pockets and generally non-offensive, pliable personality and politics that could be attractive to those with no soul or conviction.

THE WOE OF THE STATUS QUO

I watch the ripples change their size But never leave the stream Of warm impermanence and So the days float through my eyes-David Bowie-Changes

I usually refuse to look anything up. I may glance at Wikipedia before I write something, to refresh my memory, but generally if I don't know something, I'll just make something up or guess. But I have to say I was challenged by a question about superdelegates, so like any good amateur pundit, I first went to a primary source, the DNC website and then to a blog which is my new favorite which is a countdown to the Democratic convention.

Superdelegates are generally congressman, senators, governors, some big city mayors and members of the DNC itself. The DNC also recognized former leaders and speakers in Congress as well as former Presidents and vice Presidents. All told there are approximately 800 so-called superdelegates or about 20% of the total. So that's the basic, quick, possibly inaccurate civics lesson.

And you know what, it's bullshit. I'm unsure how these 800 folks no matter how distinguished have the same pull in the party and making a new direction as all the Democratic voters in California, Massachusetts, New York, Ohio and North Carolina. Yes, in a tight primary race, we are likely to let these 800 barons of the party make the huge decision of the candidate that Democrats hope will lead this country back from 8 years of Bush. I like a lot of people on this list, but I'm unsure how this is "democratic" in any way. More of a virtual aristocracy. It's not why I'm a Democrat.

ADIOS MI AMIGO

In yet another example of, "damn, staying in this race to make a point, massage my massive ego and get a major cabinet appointment costs a lotta scratch", Governor Bill Richardson dropped out of the race last night.

Onetime Cape leaguer Richardson just didn't have the game for the major leagues. Hamstrung by his general lack of charisma, being born of a state with 137 registered voters and a well known propensity to strangle old white guys, Guillermo's experience in government was no balance for the star power of Senators Obama and Clinton. It will interesting to see where this New Mexican ends up, as part of the diverse landscape of 2008 electoral politics, fade into obscurity or play a major role in a possible Democratic administration.

PLEASE JOHNNY DON'T HURT 'EM

The 21st century incarnation of JFK has endorsed the 21st century incarnation of RFK. Which makes you wonder what his former running mate is thinking tonite or what former Democratic establishment denizen Hillary Rodham Clinton may be thinking. Adorned in a clean suit to avoid passing on his lack of presidential campaign backbone, John Forbes Kerry has rolled his dice.

And Then There Were Some

DROPPING OUT OF THE HUNT
Chris Dodd and Joseph Biden after a weak showing in the Iowa Caucuses have officially decided to go back to work on Capital Hill. Struggling with their dogs and the wrong type of birdshot, they were unable to bag the birds necessary to move on in the Rod and Gun Club finals.

I'll miss Biden in the debates. I'm sure Dodd was on OK guy, but Biden is smart and could have brought up issues beyond the very superficial in the debates and perhaps actual bring some substance to the foreign policy discussion.

Edwards is lacking celebrity firepower. Barack's got Oprahpalooza lighting up South Carolina, (watch out Hillary) and of course HRC has got Mr. Clinton and a host of other Democratic party stalwarts behind here. A quick look at Edwards on the web has Tim Robbins, a fine actor and Bonnie Raitt and Jackson Browne, fine entertainers in their own right but certainly aren't going to set the world on fire. I think Pretty Johnny should try to get the US Magazine endorsement by wooing Lindsay Lohan and Tara Reid. By the way, Paul Simon was a Dodd supporter so get him on the phone. Sean Penn is for Kucinich, keep him as far away as you can.

I'm unsure why a celebrity endorsement would matter to anyone. Oprah is different I guess because a lot of people actually listen to her, a bunch of folks actually started reading because of her. A book in Oprah's book club is an instant best seller. The Huckster has enrolled action hero and fists of rage Chuck Norris which has actually gave him some traction. (he picked up wrestler Ric Flair along the way, so the toughness factor is Minister Mike's) Not sure if Bo Derek's endorsement of Rudy will have the same effect. Ah, American politics, a mile long and an inch deep, who's Doris Kearns Goodwin like? Christianne Amanpour?

OFF TO NEW HAMPSTER
Every 4 years, the Granite State gets the world's attention. Until recently, New Hampshire meant to me, Hampton Beach, a place my buddy Chris lived, no sales tax and liquor stores open on Sunday. Now that Massachusetts lets liquor stores open on Sunday it means even less. It's where people go because they don't like taxes, but make sure it's a quick drive to Massachusetts in case they need emergency medical care or other services.

It is a pretty state though, every time I drive through it to get somewhere else. Seriously though Cow Hampshire is actually kind of a cool place. It's retail politics like Iowa, but actually more people participate because they don't have to lock up with each other in a sweaty gym with crazed activists for hours having some onion eating, clove smoking, Kucinich supporter talk to you for hours.

Politically it has always had a libertarian streak, people there don't like taxes, and recently passed a civil union law and generally don't like people telling them what to do, evangelical, or PC liberal equally. They also generally don't like people from Massachusetts, using the clever Masshole moniker to describe us, certainly Romney will be able to flip himself out of that one, using Utah, Michigan, Paris or even his own 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th home that he owns in New Hampshire to proclaim himself as a native son. (part of his 50 state strategy)

With the recent birth of the Manchester airport, candidates most likely can skip the obligatory Boston trip, usually a 4 hour stop for Democrats to pick up some of that fresh Democratic activist money from us crazed liberals, lawyers and slave and molasses heirs and heiresses and move their way on to the pancake house.


NEW HAMPSHIRE? A BELLWETHER?
In the past, for both parties, New Hampshire was the first or second round of the tournament, the small conferences get knocked out, the Florida A and M's and Oral Roberts' get tossed aside while the North Carolina and UCLA's roll on to the "real games".

This year is somewhat different. Super Duper Tuesday as it is being called is on February 5th. Hey, Massachusetts is relevant again! Over 20 states vote on that day with roughly half the delegates up for grabs. If you can stay relevant for a month, you can roll the dice on the big day.

For candidates, like Edwards, McCain and particularly folks like Romney who can write his own checks, New Hampshire may not be that important. Make a decent showing in South Carolina, a few people in Las Vegas walk out of the casinos and brothels to show up at the caucuses for you and you are in the game. I'd put Fred Thompson in this group but it looks like he just wanted to get up on the top of the roller coaster and ride down, he's not taking this very seriously. Unsure what's going to eventually happen with those very important states of Michigan and Florida in regards to their legal wrangling around their primaries but that stuff is just confusing even for a political dork like me. In fact, it seems like Giuliani's entire strategy is built around Super Duper Tuesday. Well that and Rudy's itchy button pushing finger.

So here we go enough until Tuesday night and the next report. We're off and running!

Dem Dummies

MUSTERING THE CIRCULAR FIRING SQUAD
There are really bad parts about getting older. Hamstrings tighten up, get hurt doing the most mundane tasks, less time for fun and games, you become more jaded, your optimistic leftist plans for utopia vanish and other depressing facts. On the other hand there are benefits as well, homeownership, powertools, and the acquiring of a taste for good scotch and bourbon.

One of my observations over the last few years, maybe even couple of decades is watching how my Democratic party is able to never create a coherent message except that "we aren't the Republicans" and "poor and minority folks should vote for us."

Bill Clinton for the most part attempted to stem the bleeding of the McGovern-Carter-Mondale-Dukakis cycle of failure by moving the party to the middle. For his sins, he was attacked from the left as a "corporatist" (hell at that point, I was one of them, damn this hindsight is awesome), and from the right, well it was just a straight up attack on him personally, unable to get the "penetration" necessary on many of his policies, they attacked him and his family personally or took what would be normally minor issues and make them impeachable offenses. Compare the "lying before congress about oral sex" to the knuckleheadedness and nincompoppism that happens today.

There is a certain blindness and arrogance around progressivism in this country. We just can't seem to understand why poor people would vote against their own personal, economic interests. Likely there are many different reasons, cultural reasons, conservative mores and "values" that don't seem to jibe with those of Democratic candidates, particularly in the primaries where candidates seem to pander to the lefty activists that raise the money and hold the signs. Also there are many who are taxaphobic that they feel the liberals will raise taxes beyond levels that they feel are already to high or ration health care. Certainly there is also a feeling that Democrats want to a. take their guns and b. surrender to the terrorists. Also, for many poor and working people, there is little intention particularly for new immigrants to stay poor forever, and the feeling maybe be that the Republican party better represents the interests of entrepreneurs and those willing to work hard to bring themselves up from poverty.

These beliefs are fanned by talk radio politics and right wing commentators and parroted by tabloid media recipients, and unfortunately there is a fear or inability to adequate explain progressive ideas on the part of Democratic candidates. I've become very frustrated with my own party, the zeitgeist of my party is that it is a big tent and everyone in the tent gets to yell and scream at the same time, becoming a cacophony of bizarre notions and insipidity. Certainly, we have a hardcore center of the party, build by the followers of FDR, JFK and beyond, based in the factories of urban America and fields of rural America of days gone by. But there is no real message to the party today, other than we're not George Bush and we believe in change. Unsure what that change is but it's change.


The Democratic Party certainly lacks the strong message to guarantee a White House bid despite weak Republican candidates, even as a political junkie, I have no idea. Certainly a lack of this message will guarantee defeat in November.


IOWANNA WIN
So today is some type of weird quadrennial holiday in Iowa. The last day that most people across the country will give Iowa a second thought.

As much as I don't like the idea of Iowa having so much power in a campaign, It's a nerdy, voyeuristic, political junkie's dream especially as it's brought to you by C-SPAN. Luckily the wonderful people of Comcast have also brought us C-SPAN 3.

I'm sure the candidate have had just about enough of porkchops, county fairs and overalls at this point. It's big fish in a little pond time at caucuses, like the dream of every blogger being in the New York Times, every little leaguer in the Boston area, knocking one off the Green Monster. I mean they are literally counting hands and trying to convince one another to come to another side that is more viable. At least on the Democratic side, on the Republican side they sit down in bowties and fill out ballots, less chance on the GOP side to act like a complete jackass on national TV.

In Iowa, it appears at this point that Huckabee will win the Iowa caucuses (at least that's what the teevee tells me) so Romney's deep pockets couldn't carry the corn farmers and evangelicals who supported Skinny Mike to victory here.

Just a short post here. Post caucus and pre-New Hampster primary talk to follow.