The Land of Make Believe

" I am about to make an announcement. Can we help you, King Friday? Of course. What can we do? You can listen."

Politics and in particular a Presidential campaign bring out a range of emotions in me. As a person who loves America, the American dream and the American potential, I see this peaceful exchange of power as a beacon to the world. What warlord, king, or emperor of any time would ever be able to give up the power of world history's greatest war machine, strongest economy, and the virtual leadership of the world? On the other hand, I see an electorate continuing to be fed pablum on domestic policy and fear in foreign policy in national defense as they make a decision on who will govern this country for the next 4-8 years.
Of course, this shell game doesn't just exist for our top Constitutional offices, it is a large part of Congressional races, state legislature races and probably on down to the dog catcher. It is part of the big sell, "no money down", "get rich quick", "bill gates will pay you money to forward this", mentality that we have. As I have said in the past, Americans are also terrified of getting screwed, they always think that someone's taking something that's there's whether it be immigrants, the fat cats in Washington, the taxman, the Panamanians, bankers, whatever. At the same time we feel very entitled, "I paid into social security my whole life, I should golf for 35 years", "I want schools to raise my kids", "I'm suing because I didn't know the coffee was hot", etc.
The best way to make this sale is "guns and butter" and the smallest cost to you. Americans want the easy solutions. Push the cost forward to a different generation. Fight two wars simultaneously in addition to a Global War on Terror and hand back money to the taxpayers simultaneously. Hand out huge farm bill subsidies to the largest corporations, money for roads and schools on the state level without any real accountability (and God forbid if you try), one man's pork is another man's livelihood.

One of the hardest things to teach high school kids is the concept of fairness. Often they will equate fairness with anything that requires a lack of their physical or mental behavior, this is learned behavior that later becomes pervasive in adulthood. How do I get by, how do I skip this step and the snakeoil salesman will quickly come and make it right for you, redstate, blue state or purple state. So as part of a continuing albeit itinerant series, I bring you AMERICAN SNAKEOIL. The platitudes and misinformation of that every replicating American politician.

AH, RETIREMENT
The American dream, all of ours, a comfortable retirement where work is an option, good healthcare is available and the only real necessities are going to the post office, playing with your grandchildren and order a filet o' fish/no sauce and a black coffee.

In the "good old days" retirement was rare, often you would either die young due to overwork or disease, die at your desk or machine or field, live with your kids or die in poverty. It's only recently with Social Security, medicare, and poorly planned pension systems have given the elderly a shot at a life of leisure. We now see this retirement as an entitlement. But now those baby boomers who have been paying those FICA taxes will need to be supported, the most spoiled generation in world history is going to get theres and of course as the largest group of voters, it's unlikely Congress will use such ideas as means tests or higher retirement ages to protect the Social Security trust fund.

FDR's dream to give the elderly dignity has grown into the snowbird generation and filled casinos from Mohegan to Vegas. And people who've worked hard deserve this part of the American dream but who's going to pay for it? Uh, younger people. It is difficult for politicians to say "I'm going to take more of your money" but that's what's going to happen, as the demographics become older, that's where the voters are. Add to this an 8.8 trillion dollar deficit and you are talking across the board tax hikes, because the boomers didn't feel like paying when they were in the workplace and thin-skinned, weak politicians were afraid to tell the truth. They manage to end up at the top of the Ponzi scheme. The rest of us play the lottery. Now I am the king of the sweeping generalization, but the squeeze is on. For more non-partisan, honest to goodness, real info go to Facing Up to the Future.

TIE A YELLOW RIBBON
Since the end of Vietnam there has been a concerted effort by media, government and the American people to show open support for soldiers, sailors, marines and airmen in the field. The guilt of the non-support of Vietnam soldiers and veterans, both real and perceived sticks in the craw of the American psyche as the defeat was put at the hands of those who served. This was not to ever happen again. Iraq, Afghanistan and the Global War on Terror are being fought by the few. A couple of hundred thousand, half a million at most of the 300 million Americans have actually served in "harms way" whether it be as a trigger puller or in support. Compare this to the tens of millions of young men (and many women) who served in uniform in World War II, the last time that America came under attack.

This has created a strange dynamic, the few doing the work for the many particularly when many of these young men and women, particularly the enlisted folks may be from poor backgrounds or be marginalized in other ways, by the workforce or educational establishment. So outside families and close friends, there are many for who the war is an abstraction, some kind of geopolitical game that they can take or leave depending on "what the score" is, many tire of it and just wish it would disappear. For others it is very emotional, on either end, overdoing it with multiple yellow ribbons or accusations of non-patriotism for no physical intonation to your stand on the troops, on loony liberal side, the egregious actions at Abu Ghraib become the stand of all soldiers and troopers on the ground.

So it becomes a political football, with a solid 99.9% of people likely supporting soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines, the pro-war group has managed to keep saying if "you don't support the war you don't support the troops" or the "Democrats want to keep supplies from going to the troops". (like Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi are going stop the C-17 at Pope Airfield from delivering needed body armor and ammunition) The Democrats particularly in the shadow of 9/11, have a fear of weakness, and a fear of showing no backbone and by doing it ironically show no backbone. The addition of people like Jim Webb provide a certain undeniable expertise and skin in the game for Democrats that the Saxby Chambliss' of the world can't assail.

Charlie Rangel, a man who knows a little something about combat, has introduced a draft bill most Americans are not in favor of the draft and even the military finds it does not fit its current needs although they seem to be very happy to keep those that are already there through stop loss procedures. But can a democracy in a war for it's own survival continue to rely on the few through many deployments to "save us". Or is this simply another foreign adventure?

Candidates will continue to speak in the prosaic, superficial phrases of supporting the troops but how much is being done for their actual welfare, to bring them home, to help them to actually have an accomplishable mission, to give them the appropriate rest and training between deployments and for the sake of the nation, to prevent the hemorrhaging of young, experienced NCO's and officers from the horror of endless war.

Next week, barring huge political news, I look at public employee and teacher unions and the farm bill, one thing I know a bunch about and the other I know nothing about, not that it matters. For a great read , see Jonathan Alter's article in Newsweek on Norman Borlaug it's what started me on this rant.

Rudy McRomney

So it begins, the pot begins to stir in the early stages, that early boil that brings some scum to the surface, only to be skimmed off by ghosts of yellow journalism, the spectre of common sense or the poltergeist of the almighty dollar. Last week, we lose one candidate, my GOP favorite is decimated by a lack of fundraising and staff changes and another just baffles the imagination.

JIM GILMORE

Jimmy Gilmore has left the race before I even got to use some clever reference to conservative women as "Gilmore Girls", but I think as the darling of the anti-Rudy McRomney movement, "real" conservatives have a loss. This small loss slightly increase the odds of Mike Huckabee gaining some Iowa and New Hampshire votes, as Huckabee's spent an entire commercial break calling everyone on Gilmore's fundraising list. Apparently this run was to get a little attention and run as the "Ronnie Reagan" candidate on another ticket. I'm surprised I don't have a nightmare of the cloning of Ronald Reagan. So farewell, Jimmy, we hardly knew ye and welcome you as a Vilsack footnote to the class of 2008.

John McCain's Week From Hell

I imagine Senator McCain likely feels that after all he went through in Vietnam, he would never have another bad day. So weeks like this are likely frustrating but will do little to move this man's conviction. That's why I still think he hangs in there. That's not to say there's some trouble ahead. The Senators support for an Immigration Bill that rapidly spun out of control and in some circles his continuing support for a surge in Iraq are positions that have not been very popular. What some may have labelled as maverick positions are now seen as doddering. And so he has lost support from the anti-immigration right wing of the party and the coherent part of the party that recognizes that the Iraq War strategy has been, well, non-coherent. Despite these transgressions, I still think he wins the nomination. For a couple of reasons, one in 2004, I remember laughing at a huge Kerry supporter as the campaign went into early winter, standing at somewhere around 5% in the polls, the laughable, Brahmin cartoon character looked to go the way of many northeast liberals, quietly into the night. Months later, with Wes Clark's sweater neatly folded in his sweater drawer, I reluctantly cast my vote, for the undisputed winner of the Democratic primary process. The other reason being, in the event of an attack on American soil, it is unlikely that the American people will turn to a Giuliani or Romney or any of the other clowns to help to bring America back. McCain rightly or wrongly has national security panache that the corporate titan and slimy ex-big city mayor simply do not have. So if John can keep up a six month rope a dope, he might be the only one standing.

Thank You Govona Rumnoy

You know sometimes writing about how silly politics is just too easy. I imagine Lincoln often stood during the Civil War and would holler over, "Wait Mathew (Brady), for the next portrait there is a lovely woman aside me making allusion to Jefferson Davis' petticoat". It is hard to imagine that a candidate as well planned and orchestrated as Governor Romney would stand next to signs that have misspellings, and are just rude, stupid and ignorant. First, don't compare any American to Osama Bin Laden unless you expect to get the backside of a bottle of Jim Beam upside your head, second don't talk about people's mamas and third, who the hell spells mama wrong? My daughter is seven months old and can almost spit the word out. Romney poses for this ridiculous photograph the day after comparing Senator Clinton's economic policies to Karl Marx', kicking off red baiting most likely not seen since the days of Barry Goldwater in 1964. The Governor is taking the run to the hard right early thing a little too seriously, remember you were elected by the nice Commonwealth of Massachusetts, as a social liberal, fiscally conservative person that you really are, in the long run, no one like another flip flopper from Kennedyland.

I missed the YouTube debate, boy is this campaign degenerating but quick.

THE UNDECLARED:

THE UNDECLARED

Ahhhhh. Not raising cash but not burning it either. It's a time to be teased, to get excited about a potential candidate. Start the Draft George McGovern '08, see if Keanu Reeves is interested, look for a niche candidate or someone who reminds you of better times, real or fictional. maybe some "simple folk". These are the candidates that can bow out if they realize the water is too hot, do opposition research on themselves and slowly move up in the polls as those who are already in the game stumble over themselves for attention and cash. Spending some nice summer days in New Hampshire eating lobster rolls, drinking Natty lites and living free and dying. Some nice days in Iowa counting cornfields, playing baseball against dead guys, or whatever the devil it is they do out there.

These are the candidates that will have the buttons, t-shirts and bumper stickers that you will find humor with in the future when cleaning your basement. My mother's truck with the Jackson '88 sticker on it, when Jesse could still make you believe. The guys (mostly) that are outside the mainstream but have some appeal.
There are scary parts to this strategy, if you are a party regular, you pretty much got to get in early. You need to raise the money for TV, get bad YouTube, Facebooks and MySpace pages up to create a buzz. Jump in late, right before a caucus and you may either have a quick organization that will get some folks out to the schools and VFW's or you may end up just as a late night TV joke.

If you're a celebrity candidate, a maverick or a kook, chances are the media bored with covering the same 5 syllable talking points and inane stump speeches of the ditzy dozen "front runners" will pay attention to you. If you're a bright but dull senator from the east coast, you better get in and get your numbers up or you'll be out of the race faster than you can say Tom Vilsack. For the voter it's interesting to follow, like the pretty girl on the subway, you can just take a look not realizing that she may be packing a razor knife in her sock or waiting for her boyfriend to get out of prison.

So here's the sexy seven coming up. There may be others and frankly there's a couple of these guys, who like the middle aged guy at the wedding are just excited to be asked to dance by the buxom bridesmaid, are only in it to postpone their fading glory, or sell their book or get some nice paying pundit job.

Fred Thompson

Ole Fred is starting to make some noise. As a huge fan of Law and Order and much younger wives, me and Fred should be peas in a pod. As I asked in an earlier post, will women voters vote for Fred Thompson in the general election, completely decked out with trophy wife?

Also in the parade of candidates trying to be just like Reagan, Freddie according to reports has a lot in common with Ronnie Reagan, lazy, multiple marriages, "plain speaking", actor; I got no idea what he's got going for him, actually. Freddie's got a kid the same age as mine, he's 65, damn, I feel like I'm going to drop dead and I'm not nearly his age. It will be an overall embarrassment if old Hollywood pulls that red pickup truck out of his ass. He may try to be this year's straight talker, I'm wondering if he'll be the first candidate to pull out the, "I'm not going to bullshit you" in a stump speech. (hell, I'd buy the t-shirt) I'll say this for Fred, he comes off as charming, speaks well and probably has a Q rating through the roof and has the benefit of while supporting going to war in Iraq, never had to vote on it. Was one of McCain's national co-chair's in 2000, may try to replicate his freethinking persona for 2008.

Michael Bloomberg

Mike Bloomberg is one interesting cat. Recently made himself independent after switching to Republican from Democrat so he could be elected mayor of New York. Likely the first mayor of New York to be a Red Sox fan. Bloomberg has the ability to self-finance, in fact he could likely finance the entire campaign cycle, Democratic, Republican, Green, Reform, Constitution, David Duke et al. So fundraising isn't an issue. Has declared that he doesn't see how a 5'7" divorced Jewish Red Sox fan from New York City (via Medford) could ever be elected President. But seriously, he is the Brewster's Millions candidate, single handedly he could turn this whole ATM political machine around with his own bankroll. No looking for handouts, can just blast away at partisan politics if he wants and speak his mind. Oh yeah, and you gotta say something for the Sox fan that's mayor of New York City.

Newt Gingrich

My God, it seems like I hated you a generation ago. At this point the Contract with America seems like a liberal Godsend in politics. A conservative policy argument in a much more reasonable time. Nowadays, people would probably think it was the Port Huron Statement. Newt is a womanizer, another guy on his third run in marriage but had the chutzpah to go on Dobson's show and talk about his sinning. Like if he just got it out there than it's ok. He's already been spanked by one Clinton, on the off chance he's nominated it may happen again. I think Newt's just doing this to ramp up his speaking tour. I think his strategy is to revise and update the Contract with America, get 5-7 talking points into every one's head besides the words "terror" and "Iraq". But most likely it's just a lotta chicken dinners at the Manchester VFW.

Chuck Hagel

Chuck's got a lot of appeal for the American public. A decorated enlisted infantryman in Vietnam, from a heartland state and a bonafide anti-Iraq, "staying the course is stupid" Republican. He has actually mentioned running outside of his party and may get the vote of those Republicans who are actually fiscal and social conservatives but haven't completely lost their minds. Hagel has the opportunity to be McCain 2000 if he has the gumption. I really have no idea why Hagel hasn't stepped into the race right away, unless there is some deep, secret in his past, or if he's just likes his role as it is and doesn't understand why anyone would want to be President. Would likely be attractive to many Reagan Democrats. Would face a fundraising challenge unless he runs with Bloomberg.

Al Gore

Albert Gore in 2000 came less than 600 votes from winning the Presidency. That being said had the man been able to carry his own state, the hanging chads and all the Buchanan supporting bobes and zeydes in Palm Beach County would have been for not. Al has become incredibly evangelical about climate change which is of interest to....all those people who would vote for him anyway. Others, truck drivers, NASCAR fans, generally most people who are consumers don't really care or understand, and think, "hey global warming, more beach days for me." I saw a replay of Al on the MTV movie awards, the only thing missing was him and Snoop smoking a blunt. I like Al's stuff on climate change, but Americans do not like to be scolded or cajoled into action, we like our politicians to give us undeserved platitudes and sweeping generalizations, so Mr. Vice President, thank you for being an outstanding elder statesman.

Wesley Clark

If you know me, you likely know that I'm a Clarkie. Clark is another authentic American hero, wounded in Vietnam and won the Silver Star, leading his company after taking rounds from a VietCong. And this was after finishing first in his class, going to Oxford as a Rhodes Scholar and finishing Ranger training. To me it goes far beyond his military service and understanding of modern warfare and international politics but a sense of his intelligence and his can do attitude. Clark always polls very low, likely due to his nerdy nature and his affinity for sweaters that would make Mike Dukakis blush. Clark was among the leaders of the the post Vietnam War military and helped to bring the Army back from the abyss. This leadership will help in a modern military depleted by prolonged deployments and losing by attrition many senior NCO's and junior officers. I know that Clark's role won't be President but as a National Security Advisor, chief of staff or a non-evil mirror image of Dick Cheney helping to run the governmental apparatus from behind the scenes.

Ralph Nader

Oh Ralph, you are the easy whupping boy for us that lean to the left. An authentic spoiler of the election of 2000. In 2000, Nader won nearly 3 million votes, enough to ego swab him into thinking about making another run in 2008. Nader styles himself as a man of the people, and see himself as a real alternative to the corporate Republicrats that are too cowardly to debate military spending and hand out corporate welfare hand over fist at the expense of American working people. Nader is likely to siphon off some of the Kucinich wing of the Democratic Party and those people young and old who don't want to "hold their nose" when they vote for the DLC endorsed candidate for President. Oh yeah, and likely to carry the vote of those who want or even think that Taft Hartley will ever be repealed. (ok, of those who actually know any of the specific pieces of Taft Hartley)

So there's the Undeclared, look for weekly updates on the race...

THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY, EVERYTHING FOR EVERYONE AND NOTHING FOR ANYONE Ah, the Democratic party, first I am a member of this fine party, pretty well aligned with the "corporatist DINO's" of the DLC. Now I know many think that the Democratic Party after the disaster that is George W. should likely waltz down Pennsylvania Avenue on a January day in 2009 for a quick conversation with the Chief Justice, a few dances and cocktails, and then start firing out the executive orders. But I've been to this party before, watched how the Democratic Party assembles its circular firing squad and somehow snatches defeat from the jaws of victory.


Yup, that's the way it works. Bubba Clinton understood it, after putting up successive candidates of McGovern, Carter, Mondale, and Dukakis, all fine men and liberal to the core, he realized that there was a vital center that was getting missed by the race, gender, sexual orientation and class based politics that the Democratic big tent was very inclusive of, to a fault. Bill understood that it was necessary to adopt your opponent's popular positions and make them your own, particularly when there was little to lose politically. For example, welfare reform, don't think many people ran to vote for Liddy's husband when Clinton talked tough on welfare.

The Democrats have no one like Karl Rove, someone who can set marching orders and have all the trains run on time. The smallest Democratic caucus is stratified politically, and even the most minor standout for a candidate can be like herding cats. Ordering pizza can become a Maoist like experience in self criticism. Democrats pride themselves on their individualism which ironically can quickly become groupthink. But there will be time for stringing together metaphors over the next several months of the campaign, so onto the candidates.



Biden 250-1
I like Joe Biden, in fact of all the candidates he is likely to be the most qualified to be the leader of the free world. That being said, that means you are likely screwed as far as electability. Joe likely has the greatest scope of knowledge on foreign affairs of this crew, and of the judiciary. Perhaps, Joe's biggest flaw is his mouth, he just does not know to stop when he's ahead. Even when he was trying to compliment a fellow candidate he screwed up, in 1988 when he ran out of things to say from his own head, he just used other peoples. Watching Joe Biden speak is like watching the Devil Rays play baseball, "wow, look at that talent" and then you just see them running into outs, overthrowing the ball into the dugout, dropping pop ups, well, you get the picture.


Clinton 4-1
Hillary's most positive characteristic in my mind is that she is the toughest candidate of the bunch. That likely is also her most negative in many folk's minds. Put simply, when a man is tough it's a positive character trait when a woman is, well you know the rest. I honestly have never heard of a person who people have such stratified views of. One who brings so much energy to an opposition and can be a cash cow to both sides in the issue. As smart, tough and Machiavellian as she is, I can't see how she could possibly win the general election. A lot of people who are a lot smarter than me and observe politics for a living insist she can win, but I'm not sure if they are talking to people a. outside the beltway, b. outside New York c. are middle class and working class men. Mrs. Clinton has done quite a job in the Senate, both on a national level and especially for her state in bringing home the bacon.


But here's the rub, being Mrs. Clinton can be both a blessing and a curse. Bill has monstrous charisma, exudes it, sure there are many who hate him but there are many more who he has inspired. Bubba's the guy you want to send to meet an alien invasion and it's likely his proclivity for the ladies is what kept him from being a great President. This curse of below the belt rascality haunts not only his own presidency but the potential presidency of his wife. It does not speak of her loyalty but of her failure to act to protect herself. And how does someone who can't protect herself, protect her country.


When you see Hillary speak next to her husband, you also feel her weaknesses, her inability to "feel our pain" to connect and to understand. There are not many people that can feel the extremes of emotion when they even hear the name "Hillary" and oh did I mention she would be the first woman on the top of a major ticket? And the fact that she is the only type of baseball fan worse that a Yankees fan, an opportunistic Yankees fan. Likely more on Hillary later on, she'll still be winter material. An the right wing conspiracy anxiously hopes for your nomination.




Edwards 3-1
If John Ritter had lived, he could have played former Senator Edwards in the TV movie, "If You Slip and Fall":The John Edwards Story. John Edwards despite being behind now in the polls is my favorite to get the nomination. I just see some machinations happen with Clinton being the northeastern female candidate and Obama being a Black candidate, that the white male with the big money ends up on top. Crazy talk, you say. John Edwards, the multimillionaire trial lawyer is on to something, there are rich people and there are poor people. OK, let's say this though, the man made his own money and few people quibble with people who work hard, get an education and make it in America. If he can make it seem that he wants to facilitate more opportunity for all and not just confiscate money from those who have to move to those who don't he could do well. Edwards has a certain boyish charm and some hard luck stories in his family that will resonate with the readers of Redbook and Reader's Digest, including a bunch of people in Iowa and New Hampshire. But John for the love of God, why didn't you read the intelligence on Iraq? Did you have something more important to do at the time? Nonetheless, John Edwards, in my mind is the likely nominee for the Democratic party.

Kucinich 150-1
There is a Dennis Kucinich wing to the Democratic party. Often they are the ones who are known as the America blamers by the right wing. Also on college campuses where young and not so young who have yet to sell out to corporate interest, shirts and ties, paying taxes and regular paychecks can still live the dream of a true left liberal residing in the White House. A friend describes him as honest and the only candidate with fire in his belly. He has the blessing and curse of being true to himself. I imagine that Dennis will likely do well in the liberal bastions of Amherst, Berkeley, Santa Cruz, Cambridge, anywhere that has a large number of vegans and elsewhere will be trounced. Caucuses can always make things interesting for "fringe" candidates as Pat Robertson showed in Iowa in 1988 or Pat Buchanan in 1992. He would be the shortest president ever that did not write under the name Publius and likely the first that could be on an episode of Star Trek without any makeup. His unlikely nomination would be a disaster of the utmost proportion and likely move the Democratic party to irrelevancy.

Dodd 350-1
To me the Dodd campaign is similar to the Tommy Thompson campaign of the Republicans. Why? I got nothing against him, but he looks like he should be running for high school principal and not President. Would he run Gitmo like a in-school suspension? Would al-Qaeda operatives have to write an essay explaining their misbehavior? The highlight of any Dodd campaign will likely be a well articulated albeit pandering debate in Spanish with Bill Richardson about Latino issues. All well and good but suffice to say, Hispanics aren't likely to make the entire difference in the primaries and among those who will vote and are citizens, most are able to understand what you say in English and are more concerned about issues like schools, crime, national defense and the things that all Americans care about than being able to articulate the material in the language of our parents and grandparents. The reaction to many when hearing about Dodd running, "really, Chris Dodd, the other guy from Connecticut?"

Gravel 500-1
Mike Gravel is the Democrat's answer to Jim Gilmore. If you could somehow wrap Gilmore up with a pinch of Ron Paul. After 77 years of life he has finally perfected his mustache and he was ready to go out and make some noise. Mike has the benefit of age and knowing he can't win to go out and speak his mind and not raise any money at all. Gravel hearkens back to a time where a populist could be a liberal and vice versa, benefiting from the fact that he is an adopted Alaskan. Made some hay in his comments opposing the war on Iraq, has authentic liberal credentials for his actions opposing the Vietnam War and the draft. Getting his final 15 minutes in.


Richardson 150-1
I guess as the first Latino candidate for President, I should really be paying more attention to Bill Richardson. As a southwesterner with executive and legislative experience and a possibility of mobilizing those Latinos (mostly Mexican Americans) who have not voted into voting, Bill seems to be running for vice president, someone who could balance out the ticket from some of these "crazy liberals from the northeast." In some wacky turn of events, (being that he's Governor of New Mexico) Richardson also may have the most foreign policy experience of any of the candidates. The biggest problem with Bill despite not being sure if he signed a professional baseball contract or not is how would the nation ever trust a guy to keep a nation secure when he couldn't really hold it down at the Department of Energy. Seems like a likable guy, who would do well it caucuses if he could sit around and connect with everyone. Of the entire field, the one I would like to have over for dinner. Not likely to be around in February, but look for Bill to play a part in a potential Democratic administration if only because he can pronounce the capitals of all of the countries in the Axis of Evil.


Obama 3-1
"Let me be clear", (one of Obama's favorite transition phrases) Obama is this election cycle's Howard Dean. I see these odds going up quick. An early favorite, raising tons of money where it has never come from before, stoners cutting down to give a little, college kids dipping into the tip jar, not so youthful idealists giving their little in the sea of PAC money, bundling, rangers and pioneers. It is downright humbling to see this participatory democracy in action.

Barack should be "my guy", not far from my age, a hard working, smart, fast riser who worked in community organizing. Obama is a brilliant rhetorician (When Barack spoke at the 2004 Democratic convention, he literally brought me to tears in public), with a very flimsy resume to be commander in chief. While this resume is strong enough to be a Harvard professor, or maybe even get the fortuitous opportunity to run against cuckoo Alan Keyes for US Senate, his meteoric rise likely ends somewhere halfway through the campaign when a lot of Democrats realize that he's probably unelectable in the general election. Bring out the fact that a. he's Black b. his middle name is Hussein and c. used drugs as a kid, d. he lived in "foreign countries with all them foreigners" and e. any other stupid shallow fact that the American public seems to latch on to and the tide begins to turn.

Now the real concerns that Americans can have, a genuine lack of experience. Some may say that JFK had the same lack of experience and his charisma and his ability to inspire a generation is still revered by many, but in a time of "war on terror", economic upheaval and globalization, it's likely that even those that will look beyond the surface qualities will finally cast a vote for him. And if so, the Republican machine will have him in their sights. I love Obama, I see him carrying the torch of that liberal lion Ted Kennedy for the next 30 years in the Senate, a super intelligent guy, a quick study who believes in America and creating opportunity for all American people, but an Obama presidential campaign is a disaster waiting to happen.



And we're off, look for weekly updates and ramblings.

July 4th Handicapping

So we're off. I'm declaring a start to the 2008 presidential primary season. To the right for the next few months you'll see updated handicapping of the primaries. Now here's the rules. No one gets in until they are declared and starting around football season, I'm going to start putting in odds for the general election.

I won't go above 500-1. Just because the house needs to protect itself and who's the say the entire Democratic field except for Gravel won't be rounded up as al-Qaeda operatives by the not so JUSTice Department.

There are interesting potential candidates who aren't in the race yet. Frequently bandied about are Fred "I'm a lazier version of Ronald Reagan" Thompson, Chuck Hagel, Newt Gingrich (?), Mike Bloomberg, Wesley Clark (mostly by me), Ralph Nader and Lou Dobbs (but only on CNN between 6 and 7). Probably a huge post in there somewhere. But for today, lets go with the Republicans who have declared.

THE REPUBLICANS

SAM BROWNBACK 250-1

I'll say this about Sammy, ain't too many Americans that are converting to Catholicism nowadays, most of us head in the other direction. Seems like a decent guy, went to Darfur, probably has a decent bbq out there in Kansas. The evangelicals look at him as the gold standard, doesn't believe in evolution, is largely the one issue candidate around abortion, which will mobilize those one issue voters. Sees Jesse Helms as a model, and was a sponsor of the Constitution Restoration Act (apparently I missed the memo that it was missing.) Never mind this guy is scary as hell, don't look now Sam but the pendulum is swinging.

Jim Gilmore 500-1
I know nothing about Jim Gilmore. He's from Virginia, Virginia is one of the five places I claim to be from, still don't know who he is. I guess he's the conservative's conservative. One that claims to speak for the soul of the party, one of the few with actual government chief executive experience. Raised slightly more money than I did last quarter. Seriously that's all I got

Rudy Giuliani 5-1
I dislike Rudy in a profound way. Like him on pro-choice and the fact that as a northeasterner he can actually has the speaking speed and diction to order breakfast in less than a half hour. The appeal, he seemed to be in control and keep his head about him on 9/11. Other than that, I don't know, sometimes he appears to be one of those old school Eastern establishment Republicans that I think some GOP'er's are yearning for. Helped to turn NYC around. I find him to be surrounded by a lot of corruption, and what is it that my mother said, divorced once shame on you, divorced twice shame on me? What does the guy do when his coinpurse is a lot bigger than NYC, more Bernard Kerik's? Was a member of the Iraq Study Group but had better things to do and didn't attend any meetings, similar to his Vietnam era military deferments. I think this guy burns out fast, especially when NYC firefighters come up and swiftboat him, he can't win without the firefighters supporting him and by the way, where did the Giuliani administration locate the emergency readiness center in New York? The World Trade Center, not sure if that makes much sense considering the 1993 attack. Oh yeah, and he's a Yankee's fan.

Duncan Hunter 250-1
Military hawk but actually a Vietnam veteran himself and his son served in Iraq so he had skin in the game. Another person claiming the Reagan mantle. Hugely popular in San Diego. Another candidate who wants to amend the Constitution for a pro-life amendment. Not very well known outside of California, solid conservative credentials that will leave him in a tight battle for 4th place along with Huckabee, Brownback and maybe even Thompson. May sneak into 3rd in Iowa, creating some momentum for the tax haters in New Hampster.

Mike Huckabee 150-1

He gets a couple extra points for being the Governor of Arkansas, is this the new steppingstone for the Oval Office. Mike also lost a lot of weight, which will play with the Republican Oprah set if such a thing exists. Gots that Arkansas gift of gab.One of the three candidates that said he didn't believe in evolution, which is somewhat disturbing. Another one of the middle tier cookie cutter republicans that wants to be a regular guy, not a rich John Edwards type. Will get asked more questions about weight loss than a Fair Tax and slowly fade away.

John McCain 4-1

The energetic, maverick, straight talking McCain of 2000 walks away with this primary election and makes himself a favorite for the general. His attraction, sometimes now physical to the President and the surge in Iraq has caused people to move away. To think how the Rovian tactics in South Carolina in 2000 may have swayed the history of the United States and the world, who knows what may have been. McCain is on the ropes right now but despite me having Romney ahead is still my favorite to win. He is electable if he can not seem so old. Granted his heroism in war and peace have exhausted him and will be interesting to see if he has the energy to make the run. Still a solid chance if he can stay on his feet and I believe becomes a prohibitive favorite in the face of a major terror attack on the United States.

RON PAUL 250-1
Ron Paul doesn't stand a chance, it doesn't keep him from being interesting. I have a friend who told me the other day he voted for him in 1988, the first person he ever voted for. I think he's interesting to the potheads on both sides and those people that really don't like to pay taxes. Also to those who want a protest vote against business as usual. I don't agree with him on a lot, but as Bob says those who don't want the government "in their head or in their bed" may lean towards him. His response to the leadup to the Iraq War is phenomenal and stood up to Giuliani's bullying during the debate when he refused to hold up the standard 9/11 answer which apparently is not "blowback". Doesn't believe in government, which would make for an interesting President. Hope he sticks around for a while just to keep things interesting. p.s . I found this sign much more telling than any other photo could be.

Tommy Thompson 250-1

So the question here is why? Why are you running? Who wastes money on you? And do you really think it's up to an employer to fire you if you are gay? What if you are a woman, Hispanic, Black? Has the firepower and slow talking midwest twang to do OK in Iowa, you know talk more about wasteful agricultural subsidies and how important they are and how people in cities are taking all the money for welfare. Boring, boring, boring. It's one thing to be in the race to make a point, or of course to win, a whole other thing if you're just a jackass.

Willard Romney 3-1
I'll say this first, I have absolutely no sexual attraction to men, but Mitt in person is a good looking guy. Perfectly put together, from central casting, no skeletons of womanizing, boozing or drugs, the best they can do and the Globe has tried hard is to talk about putting his dog in a container on a car roof. Out of the gate, he's the favorite. For all these nice things, Romney is the biggest fake in the world, the guy needs five focus groups and three white papers to decide what side of bed to get out of in the morning. He'll be charming talking about how he succeeded in that crazy Kennedyland state of Massachusetts and spout all these conservative Republican views that are....the exact opposite of what he said he believed in when he ran for Senate and Governor. I'm not sure that people are looking for a new CEO in chief and we've had our eight year run at the Harvard MBA option. Willard is eventually going to forget what he really believes in. Also about doubling the size of Gitmo, is it too small? Do we need more room? Are there terrorists that we are just letting run around because there's no place to put them? Or is this just one of them "figgers of speech". Should be interesting for Mitt to start acting all folksy, he makes George Bush, Senior look like Roy Clark on Hee Haw.

Tom Tancredo 350-1
Tancredo wants to bring America back to a better time before all this illegal immigration, ironically of course he lives in former Mexico. He is a one issue candidate, immigration reform and control in contrast to other "pro-life" one issue candidacies. Tom has the additional charm of also being one of the big three that doesn't believe in evolution. Again, I don't think Tom has any thought that he'll really be elected, but he's there to press his issue. I think he has been successful in stifling in type of reform which is now given the bumper sticker image of "amnesty" and surrender to special interests, whether they be corporate interests or that of identity and ethnic politics, could have a minor populist surge in the midwest and Carolinas if he stays around that long. Anywhere where immigrants are "stealing" those very popular picking and slaughterhouse jobs that Americans are knocking the doors down to get.

So that's what I have for the GOP out of the gate, next week on with the Dems.....

GW: A Sith Lord?

Now let's be clear. I don't like the President's politics. I think he has done great damage to our reputation abroad, serious damage to our own nation as an open democracy and generally makes poor choices on who to take his counsel from. Rumsfeld, Cheney, Bremer, Wolfowitz, Perle et al. are part of the cabal that has taken America backwards in the name of national security.

However, I always thought he was probably a decent guy, unlike many of my progressive brethren, I understand why people voted for him, the old "who would you like to have a beer with" and perhaps a little less tongue in cheek particularly in the 2004 election, voted out of fear for the tougher commander in chief. The spin was how would a guy "who looks French" and likes the finer things in life be able to defend the nation. Even if Senator Kerry killed a lot more commies than President Bush (or Reagan) for that matter ever did. But he probably is good to his wife and kids, loves his hideously evil mother and likes to fish and cut brush.

Today however the President crossed the line, now I'll say that he did it legally and within his Executive Privilege, but in a serious crossing of the line of separation of powers, if not by law, definitely by spirit. Today, President Bush commuted Scooter Libby's prison sentence. In our new reality show, an all new, "A Different Kind of American Justice", Scooter has walked away with the grand prize. A reward for not turning in his boss(es) for keeping his mouth shut, a gift for his dedication to neo-conservative omerta.

Now it appears, even to someone who doesn't buy into many conspiracy theories at this age , that, where Mr. Libby assumed that the President had authorized him to disclose information within the intelligence reporting, that the President himself or at the very least his boss Dick Cheney, that his crimes were commuted by a very person who may have been part and parcel of the conspiracy. Yes, even as Dick Cheney continues to scold Americans for their commitment to old school, pre-9/11 American democracy, there should be a separation of powers and certainly the founding fathers may not have been able to foresee a case where a President would be able to commute those who may have committed a crime for them. Perhaps the same power should be given to Mafia dons.

So does this make G.W. Emperor now? Will RFK Stadium soon host gladiatorial matches with the President's thumb up or down deciding cases? It seems the President has become the Suge Knight of the American government, expressing total control over everything. Did his weekend of fishing with Vladmir Putin push off a "dictator-off", if so watch out Moscow! These are strange, strange times.