I really have no idea what's going to happen, primaries without an incumbent are pretty much open and crazy, and open and crazy pretty much defines this GOP field. I'm certain this is not what the Wall St. and Main St. Republicans really want to see, there are a lot of wacky dudes up in the mix (and a wacky chick to keep it frothy). There are some angry ass people out there, from a lot of different angles, while I'm still waiting for the FEMA camps to open and all guns to be seized, apparently Obama the shapeshifting socialist dictator/person who does nothing but golf (for the love of God pick one, is he a crazed New Black Panther or a layabout?) can't seem to get any of his evil plots to keep the white man down.
If you want an actual good description of the candidates go to the Atlantic. Odds are for the GOP nomination, as of Independence Day 2015.
Jeb Bush 3-1
Sadly after the great conflagration of 2009, only seven families remain in America, so we have to keep having the same families throw their hats in the ring for the White House. How odd other countries must think that a democracy does this. Jeb is the candidate that the mainstream GOP wants. Mainly because he lacks the prime ingredient of most of the rest of the field, that being defined as being a little nuts. Bush has some baggage, and may not be getting the wacky billionaire money but he is going to get the lion's share of the conservative multi-millionaire money, so while he is not going to be feasting at the table of Crassus, there will be a shitload of monopoly guys tossing in their dough. Jeb is going to do his best to protect the status quo economically, particularly protecting rich people's dough compared to whatever crazy taxcutting/economic schemes the Club for Growth crew may have in mind. Jeb is tethered to a guy who for some reason invaded Iraq, but to some people this was still a good idea. I think Jeb is the odds on favorite, and he would be smart to run center right, and pick up Kasich from Ohio as a running mate.
Ben Carson 30-1
Dr. Carson was a celebrated neurosurgeon that was put on a pedestal by liberals (hell, everyone) as a guy who lifted himself up by his bootstraps, to become an accomplished neurosurgeon and medical professor. He was lefty Hollywood's dream, until of course someone asked him about his politics and realized that really he was batshit crazy. He has compared Obamacare to slavery for example and makes references that the United States is like Nazi Germany. There are however some people who have similar feelings and feel this "well spoken" brain surgeon is electable. Last week in Saugus I saw a pick up truck with three Carson bumper stickers on it. There is a small number of teaparty voters who are expressing interest, he's not going to come close to smelling the podium, but I'll be he gets 10% in South Carolina.
Chris Christie 20-1
Hmmh, eastern Republican in a possible state that can be turned red, a Governor with executive experience that is close to the Wall St. control center of the world, may a bit socially liberal making him electable in a country that leans that way. There are two real reasons that Christie doesn't have a chance of being elected. 1. He is a fat fuck. I don't mean chubby, or middle aged spread but he makes Taft look like Coolidge. He looks like his sweat glands have sweat glands. Taft really was our last fat President, in this day of television media, it's just not happening, you can't hide that with a sweater vest or something, sorry to say this, but American has a collective vanity. 2. He fucked with traffic. In many polls that I just made up, traffic polls up there with Isis as something that every American hates. And through "Bridgegate", Christie conspired to make NYC metro traffic worse, he may as well hole himself up in Tora Bora after that, he doesn't have a prayer. But damn this brother is going to eat through Iowa like a mf'er.
Ted Cruz 90-1
Senator Cruz is a maniac. He just looks crazy. I can't think of who he looks like. (is it Grampa from the Munsters?) And not only is he nuts, he's got probably the craziest father in American politics in a long time. Here's another Tea Party darling, unfortunately for the Tea Party they can't seem to find one candidate that can run in the primaries and instead spread their votes among many losers. Texas is just a crazy state, they just want to vote for people who are going to say the most radical things against the "libs" and in particular the President without any real substance, other than yelling "liberty" like my 4 year old yells for Paw Patrol. The thing with Cruz is that he must be a smart guy, he's got two Ivy League degrees, what kind of cognitive dissonance is this all about?
Carly Fiorina 100-1
Oh look, a Republican girl... Haven't we done this before? Fiorina is trying to sell herself as this year's Romney, and that America needs a CEO to "right the ship". Like Romney she has the advantage of being attractive to those that support the idea of America as a corporation, and particularly liking the idea of having someone who had a great deal of economic success taking leadership, the idea of aristocracy, oligarchy and rule by the 1%. There is some indication that she was not as successful as a CEO that she presents herself as, and really destroyed much of HP's corporate culture. Since it is unlikely we will merge with or acquire another country, her skills may not be as advantageous as one may think. Also, it is hard to imagine her debating the presumptive Democratic nominee, Hilary Clinton. We've moved a long way but seeing two women on that dais is unlikely.
Lindsey Graham 100-1
Lindsey ham. Confirmed bachelor? Man about town? Stone cold playa? Hard to tell, regardless in a red meat GOP primary, it is unlikely for a guy to land an electorate who can't land a lady. His advantage? Maybe the early primary in his homestate. Also in this avalanche of crazy conservatives, his more traditional conservative, Reaganesque conservatism may be more attractive. His disadvantage he seems to want to go to war with everyone. Unless this is attractive to people, I don't see much of a chance.
Mike Huckabee 666-1
Huckabee is the ultimate huckster. I actually found some humor in him in 2008 where I had him at 150-1, seemed like a fat guy, who by skipping the gravy and taking long walks got somewhat healthy, played guitar and just was kind of a regular, wacky conservative Christian. But really he's not, he hangs around with the worst kind of homophobes, and is unapologetic about that support. Mike is really in the race to sell books, get Internet hits, and get ready for whatever is next in his broadcasting career, in a cavalcade of dooshbags, he may be the worst of them all. His support will be limited to the most evangelical of evangelical, the snake handlers who can't really bring themselves to support Santorum, a Catholic or Jindal, a brown guy.
Bobby Jindal 600-1
Piyush is a Rhodes Scholar from Louisiana, which makes him the most accomplished Louisianan who is not a jazz musician other than Drew Brees. He is also one of the worst governors in the country, who was just today probably bailed out from his state being in near arrears because of the settlement of the BP lawsuit. Yes, thank God for that oil spill that will help us to balance our budget. I see little appeal for Jindal, he is one of two candidates (along with Santorum) that I think I may be able to outpoll in many states as a GOP candidate. There are some who are campaigning for the Presidency in this race, others for the VP, some to make a point around a particular issue, some to sell books or get a job at Fox News, all for notoriety and ego, but I cannot for the life of me figure out what Jindal thinks he's doing. It's gotten so bad, that the President's approval rating is higher than Jindal's in the state of Louisiana.
George Pataki 500-1
Granted, I haven't been following politics very closely, but I had no idea he was in the race. Pataki is a northeast moderate Republican without the chameleon like effect of Romney. There's really no reason to write anymore, Elliot Richardson is not walking through that door.
Rand Paul 12-1
Rand Paul scares the living snot out of the GOP. They do want millennials to look at the GOP as the party of liberty. (Liberty of course being defined rather narrowly and not involving gay, lesbians, or minority voters) They do not want the "libertarian" wing taking over the party. I have a couple of friends who voted for his dad years ago, mostly around the marijuana issue. To many, even on the left, Rand has views that resonate with them, around the NSA and privacy, around a more isolationist foreign policy, the aforementioned marijuana, and the recognition of the US' movement towards a national security state. Paul could do well early, particularly in some caucus states with other candidates dividing religious conservatives, etc. It will be very curious how the "mainstream" GOP treats his candidacy. He is a candidate that is a true believer, specific to ideology, not looking at the next paycheck/book deal and not looking for the second spot. There is nothing more dangerous than a true believer. The fear of the establishment on both sides is Sanders and Paul doing well early. Paul is a selective "libertarian" leaning more toward the state's rights/10th amendment type.
Rick Perry 300-1
Rick Perry is a three term governor of Texas. He is extremely popular in Texas. He is really conservative, which Texans like. I'm unsure if anyone else likes him and he bombed in the last election. I got nothing else right now.
Marco Rubio 20-1
If Jeb Bush is not the nominee, Rubio is the vice presidential candidate. He has the politics of Palin, the good looks, the good story without being a fucking moron. Rubio is young, married to a former cheerleader and has the potential to get out some Latino votes for the GOP which have traditionally ignored a population with a tendency to be social conservative because beating up on immigrants really played well with their base.Without any other tea party like candidates, he would likely play pretty well in the early primaries. We'll see how he can work the retail politics of New Hampshire and Iowa and gain any ground.
Rick Santorum 666-1
Rick Santorum is another candidate that couldn't win his home state, if every other religious conservative drops out, he could break five percent. But this is a guy in it, who knows that he can't win it.
Donald Trump 50-1
These odds should be much higher. Trump has huge name recognition, greater than any other candidate other than Bush, and is attractive to yahoo's. Yahoo's may come out and vote in some of the early primary and get him some decent double digit numbers if he decides to stay in the race until winter/spring 2016. My bet is he doesn't have the staying power to last that long and is out by Thanksgiving to work on "other ventures" as a true capitalist, unable to work within a system that can't handle the truth. Trump is a strong believer that there is no such thing as bad publicity. People will confuse their First Amendment rights with actually being able to say anything stupid they want without retribution. Trump is proud to be one of America's biggest most arrogant assholes. He confuses this with leadership.He sees diplomacy and honest negotiation as weakness, unfortunately, many Americans agree with him.
Scott Walker 10-1
Diehard conservative credentials? check. Anti-government guy who runs government? check. Hates government employees? check. This resonates with a lot of people, of course until they ever need services from the government. Walker had some huge victories in a state that used to elect socialists on a regular basis against organized labor (the battle with whom he compared to his ability to fight ISIS). Walker as a relatively young man could be looking at a second spot if he can't pull himself up to the top. He will get some of the billionaires to really get behind him, there will be a lot of dark money out there to support someone with these conservative credentials.
More to follow, don't sleep on Romney with this clown car.
