A Democratic Bucket of Spit

So we're off with Democrats. With no real no-brainer here that will seal the deal, who's the person that will go down in flames in November? Here's my random list, probably none of who will be nominated.

THE DELIBERATIVE FELLAS
There are a number of folks in the world's greatest deliberative body that may have a chance for the no. 2 spot. In a meritocracy, to make the trains run on time, Joe Biden is probably a strong choice. He knows foreign policy, would be a strong speaker on the use of smart or soft power, etc. But he brings you Delaware. I'm unsure if Delaware is a big deal in the electoral math. He's also a little bit goofy. Bayh is another guy I'm sure on many pundits short lists. I honestly don't know much about him. An authentic midwestern guy with strong Democratic bloodlines, former chair of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council and well regarded Governor of Indiana, yeah so he will play to all 837 independent, undecided centrist voters who vote on good management and free trade all across the country. None of these guys fit into the electoral math.

JOHN'S MONKEY BUSINESS
How the somewhat mighty have fallen. If you believe the tabloids, John Edwards "Two Americas" consist of a girl friend on the west coast and his lovely wife back in North Carolina. It's a good thing the endorsement of the Angry Middle didn't carry Edwards to the nomination. John may have taken his RFK mantle just a little two seriously. John won't be the VP candidate whether his hands were in the cookie jar or not, but I couldn't help myself in making an RFK and Gary Hart reference in the same paragraph.


THE THIRD VIRGINIAN
Jim Webb would have probably been the most interesting of VP candidates, providing a cache that a Navy Cross winner, former Republican with a Iraq vet son could provide. As a hot head, the debate would have been something, I like Jim Webb, but I like him in the Senate a lot better. Mark Warner also seemed like a strong Virginian, but along come Governor Tim Kaine. I got no problem with Kaine, no one is ever going to confuse him with John Edwards and the $400 haircut. Kaine is part of the movement that is turning Virginia blue, a key state in the election. He is also one of the Democrats that will piss off the liberals in the party with his pro-life views and ironically may bring some non-Democrats to vote Democratic because he pisses off a few liberals, nothing make people vote Democratic more than a Democrat that pisses off liberal. Also as a Governor he brings that executive experience that will likely balance out a Governor that will be nominated by the GOP.

THE PEOPLE'S CHOICE
If the Democratic Party machinery really just wants to throw 2008 away and save some money for 2012, nominate HRC for the vice presidency. This way people who are sexist or racist will both have a reason to vote the other way. Hillary was likely the most polarizing political entity in recent history until George W. Bush's recent escapade to run the country into the ground. Honestly despite commentary to the contrary, there are about 17 knucklehead Clinton supporters that are going to stay home or vote for McCain in November if she is not on the ballot. There are very few candidates who will elicit bumper stickers that say Defeat Hillary when she is no longer even running for anything. Again I don't really know what it is, what really pisses people off about her. A powerful woman? An opportunist? A feeling that being the wife of a former two term President doesn't necessarily entitle you to the Oval Office? The selection of HRC as VP is a sign of surrender, not just for this election but for the entire Democratic party, if this is the choice just fold up the tents because you have become totally out of touch with America.

THE GENERALS
With Senator Obama's short national security resume in a time of a Global War on Terror, the Generals become a very interesting choice. I'm a Wesley Clark guy, hard to put anything past a combat vet who's a Rhodes Scholar who was head of NATO and ran a war in the Balkans. He is often slandered "for almost causing WWIII", which in this time would just be considered some posturing and toughness with the Ruskies. In a campaign that's just stupid, even commenting about someone else isn't allowed unless it's a personal attack on someone, so his comments about Senator McCain and national security were just seen as a personal attack instead of reflecting on someone's real credentials. So it's difficult to see if Clark is a front runner. General Anthony Zinni is another attractive if not hidden candidate, if in fact he would want to give up the fat jobs of corporate directorships and teaching at Duke. Zinni was an early anti-Iraq war general referring to it as the "Bay of Goats" If not as VP, Zinni would be an outstanding NSC chief, as another combat vet with an incredible mind, not appealing to his patriotism to serve again in a post-Bush America for either party would be a loss.

THE ELDER STATESMAN
You know what this ticket is missing? An old white guy from the south. I had kind of forgotten about Sam Nunn. Always knew him as one of those hawkish Democrats. His nomination would be considered to be "the adult in the room" nomination, similar to the selection of Dick Cheney in 2000, and that worked oh so well. I'm not comparing Nunn to Cheney but that was the initial intent way back there at the turn of the century. I like Nunn, why he would give up teaching at a school that's named after him is beyond me, to do the real hard work of redefining Executive power in the post-Bush years. But maybe he's the adult we need.

THE OTHER WOMAN
In any other election, Kathleen Sebelius, the Governor of Kansas would be an interesting candidate. Democratic governor of a red state, known for working bipartisan angles, likely a good VP to work across the aisle. I'm not sure if the country is ready for search a "diverse" ticket. And the fact that she too is lacking in national security cred does not work in her favor. Barry and Katie leading the US into a post 9/11 world may not resonate with middle America being that on 9/11, Obama was a state senator and Sebelius a state insurance commissioner, not exactly the two jobs that inspire you in a war against Islamic extremism. Sexism is sexism and a guy is always going to appear tougher.

Republican Vice President

THE GOP SECOND BANANA

An older President who spent time in a Vietnamese prison hell is likely to bring more attention to who lies a heartbeat away from the Presidency. There is no real clear answer on who gets this warm bucket of spit. Is it regional balance? Another old guy? A more conservative/liberal guy? A younger guy? A woman? Here's the first cut, more to follow. Gotta run the numbers.

Mitt Romney
To me, Mitt Romney is very similar to McCain in that his past incarnation is much more appealing than his current one. He is the Jaws II of potential candidates. Romney was elected Governor of one of the most liberal states in the union, a state that liked to balance their Democratic legislature with a nice, fiscal conservative Rockefeller republican. This is a guy who actually gave Ted Kennedy a run for his money in the Senate. But then he decided to run to the right in the GOP primaries. Of course this made him an attractive candidate across the 50 states with his keen business sense and perfect hair. I've beat up on Romney before, to me not a bad governor who gave up his job halfway through to run for President. Also this guy flip flops like a madman, running seconds behind his polling data. I like Romney for Secretary of Treasury or Transportation. He is likable though, and doesn't have the baggage of other candidates. Probably the front runner.

Bobby Jindal

Young Bobby Jindal, the balance to McCain's age issue, a youthful Roman Catholic from the Deep South. Strongly pro-life governor with Congressional experience. But wait a second, it an Indian guy. I think this is the GOP's thinly veiled attempt of showing the diversity of it's big tent. This of course from a party who recently had a major candidate use the term "macaca" in his campaign. He's a rising star in the Republican party but there is now way he'll ever make the final cut Oh and by the way, he's a skinny dude, so I don't trust him.

Joe Lieberman

Joe Lieberman is the Manny Ramirez of the Democratic party. He does things that constantly piss Democrats off, supporting the war and a neo-conservative foreign agenda and then goes and is pretty progressive domestically supporting things like gay rights.

In some ways he is way too liberal for the GOP. He is a Scoop Jackson type Democrat, supporting America's military projection of power beyond the water's edge but that's where it really stops. On gun, God and gays he doesn't follow the Republican's blueprint, and he certainly doesn't drag many Democrats over to McCain. Oh and he seems even older than McCain. Joementum brings McCain nothing.

Mark Sanford

I'm tempted to throw Tim Pawlenty into this same category. Young conservative governors to balance out the old man legislator. With the increased imperial power of the executive branch it will be necessary to have someone who has had this type of experience, that is the actual execution of appropriate policy. One of these young governors would likely be John McCain's domestic policy liaison, trying to straighten out a lot of issues around infrastructure, education, oh yeah and regulation and oversight over our banking and corporate friends. In some ways, putting a conservative republican in charge of oversight of markets seems like a laissez faire abomination, but folks after all this crap, hopefully that ship has sailed.

Rudy Giuliani
Sorry I just think that's a hilarious concept. I could probably write Giuliani's address to the convention. A whole lot of 9/11 and tough talk, painting the Democrats as being the party of law enforcement against your bitter enemies trying to kill you rather than going out and hunting down your enemies. Using some old recycled anti-Dukakis propaganda. Giuliani gets to be among the paraders of the Democrats are weak and you're going to die speakers that you will hear from Minnesota.

Charlie Crist
So, he really isn't gay. Good Time Charlie is now engaged to a younger, smart, well educated, pretty costume company heiress divorcee. Perfect arm candy for a vice presidential candidate. As the Chief Administrator of God's Waiting Room, Charlie has insight into what it will take to win one of the major swing states. Charlie may have better personal appeal, but it's hard to say if the condition of his state will hurt him. Most people around the country like the idea of Florida as the Magic Kingdom or a week at Boca, but may not see it as a model for the governing of their own state, no income tax or not.

That's it for now.... Coming soon some Democrats and the obligatory women added to the GOP short list, who will it be Liddy Dole??? Sarah Palin???

Hey Dummy, It's The Economy

The Angry Middle's Guide to Dough
First, I'm not anywhere close to being an economist. I took one economics course at CCCC. A lot of it is common sense, some of it makes no sense whatsover. My personal finance knowledge is based on a fear of being poor. And a complete fear of debt. To the point that the only debt I'll carry now that my student loans are paid off is a mortgage, and even that to me is evil. So it's credit cards that get paid off every month and paying cash for a car, so we are huge on 1990's Hondas. I still roll change, I return empties, etc. I'm a cheap mothafricker. Not to say I don't splurge, I got a big tv, cable, broadband internet and like good beer and booze, but mostly I have no desire to ever put my electric bill in my daughter's name, get chased by bill collectors, etc. I believe in living below our means.This really isn't the American way. I may sound arrogant about personal finance but that's the way I feel. Don't spend what you don't have, how complicated is that? (more later on this topic)


VEN ACA, TORO
I've taken my bruises investing. The key to the New American Corporate economy is to get everyone in the game. 401K's, mutual funds, self funded pensions, discount stockbrokers got everyone in the game. A thing of beauty for Wall Street, no longer was there a huge rift between the middle class and the wealthy class, what was good for GM was good for America. The difference between retiring to a nice house on the Cape and living with your kids and being a greeter at Wal-Mart. There began to be more of a revulsion of the poor, taxes were high, because of welfare, or housing, or support for schools, money that would be better spent as part of the Investor class.


I continue to invest, both in a 457, which is the public employee's version of the 401K and in a taxable brokerage account which is my wife and I's version of casino gambling, which of course has hit a speedbump to landmine depending on what's being held, with our old friend Freddie Mac leading us into the toilet. I've been here before, holding some Fidelity tech funds in 2000 that tanked, leading me to believe that the idea of investing Social Security funds, already an underfunded Ponzi scheme into the general economy to be completely ludicrous and probably the biggest piece of corporate welfare this side of the Military Industrial complex ever handed to Wall Street. The Scratch Ticket Index fund would certainly not be too far behind this development. We all hypnotized by the idea of compounding interest and "free" money on our investments. Thinking that this money should appear overnight and without risk.



Cover Your Fannie, Mac
this rabble you're talking about... they do most of the working and paying and living and dying in this community. Well, is it too much to have them work and pay and live and die in a couple of decent rooms and a bath?
I'm really too old to believe in the Easter Bunny or conspiracy theories. Working for government it is hard to believe that it would be organized enough or that there would be any public employee that would be able to keep a secret longer than a trip to the water cooler.


But sometimes things are just too hard to believe. How could the mortgage crisis get as bad as it is other than by some type of bizarre conspiracy? Did everyone simultaneously get so blinded by greed and avarice that common sense jumped out the window? Were loans really given out for a half million dollars or more to people with such low numeracy or literacy skills that they didn't know what they were getting themselves into? That real estate for some reason would continue to go up 20, 25, 30% a year and everyone could flip themselves into wealth?


I'm a strong believer in home ownership, it builds a pride, a continuity in a community. But you got to be ready and understand what you're getting yourself into. Certainly it was not completely the fault of uninformed consumers, banks and mortgage agents "conspired" to create this craziness, where someone without employment or savings could walk out with a loan to buy a multi family, or someone who just qualified could get an huge ARM at an incredible rate to go from college student to McMansion in minutes. Hell, everybody wins, you get a home and equity loans and HELOC's fuel a consumer revolution with Sony, Hummers and Martha Stewart at the tip of the spear. Every man a paper millionaire.


Like Oksana Baiul running off the highway, this came to a quick halt. Soon all these mortgages are collateralized and bonded, overrated by the very firms that were supposed to be analyzing them and keeping them in check and ignored by a laissez faire administration that didn't want to regulate themselves out of fake economic growth. And now we face the issue of the guarantors, Freddie and Fannie. Freddie and Fannie were the folks that could make all of these loans happen. It's not their fault per se, it was there job to make sure there is liquidity in the market, money so people could own homes and as long as everyone was making money, who cared. Not keep an eye on the quality of the investments. Now the chickens have come home to roost, the bonds for Freddie and Fannie are so widely held that it could totally disrupt the economy including retiree pension funds. So it's a taxpayer bailout with more rich people getting richer or a chance for the federal government to become the world's largest landlord of people who either were too dumb to understand a home loan are were swindled by mortgage agents.


Chances are the American economy will live through this crisis. The immense size of the US economy and increased globalization may make this all into a half trillion dollar hiccup. Wall Street will come up with another scam to make their billions, outside of growing American industry and economy.


Wow, that was some of the most boring stuff I've ever written, and most of this issue I don't even understand.

Drill, Baby, Drill

The next corporate scam is drilling in the US. It's probably inevitable. Soon the drills will go into ANWR and an oceanfront near you. The rightwing is screaming that the treehuggers are killing the American economy and hate America, the public is clamoring for cheaper gas at any cost, and the Democrats, the sissies that they are, seem to be afraid of speaking up, once again.

There is a great misunderstanding in worldwide oil markets. Folks actually think that all the oil that is pumped in America will end up in their gas tanks and bring back dollar gas. Oil as the economists like to say is "fungible", and what that means in layman's terms is that stuff is going to go where you can get the best price for it, it may be in your Expedition, but it may also go to fuel the Chinese war machine, Dutch brothels, or a Japanese go-go bar, one never knows. I guess I got nothing against the oil companies, they're in business to make money, and make money they have, and given the opportunity to drill closer to home and make more money they'd probably take it.

I don't know much about Peak Oil. I know it took millions of years to create these fossil fuels and we're burning through them as fast as we can. Most of OPEC's oil is easy to get and relatively inexpensive, meaning huge profits for all. OPEC knows it's the easy oil and will likely not just burn through it all and will control the tap until they retreat back into the 14th century. (a gross oversimplification of OPEC as being predominantly Muslim) At that point the move will be to the highly polluting US shale fields.

Hell, even T. Boone Pickens, who may be one of the biggest jerks in the history of recent American politics sees the economic benefits of alternative fuels and thinks you can't drill out of the problem, the drive to drill is just another quick fix, and honestly by the time it's pumped will do little to alleviate $7/ gallon gas. But hey, if it's nice to yell and scream about liberal treehuggers, be my guest.

OK, enough depressing economics, onto VP candidates next week.