THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY, EVERYTHING FOR EVERYONE AND NOTHING FOR ANYONE Ah, the Democratic party, first I am a member of this fine party, pretty well aligned with the "corporatist DINO's" of the DLC. Now I know many think that the Democratic Party after the disaster that is George W. should likely waltz down Pennsylvania Avenue on a January day in 2009 for a quick conversation with the Chief Justice, a few dances and cocktails, and then start firing out the executive orders. But I've been to this party before, watched how the Democratic Party assembles its circular firing squad and somehow snatches defeat from the jaws of victory.


Yup, that's the way it works. Bubba Clinton understood it, after putting up successive candidates of McGovern, Carter, Mondale, and Dukakis, all fine men and liberal to the core, he realized that there was a vital center that was getting missed by the race, gender, sexual orientation and class based politics that the Democratic big tent was very inclusive of, to a fault. Bill understood that it was necessary to adopt your opponent's popular positions and make them your own, particularly when there was little to lose politically. For example, welfare reform, don't think many people ran to vote for Liddy's husband when Clinton talked tough on welfare.

The Democrats have no one like Karl Rove, someone who can set marching orders and have all the trains run on time. The smallest Democratic caucus is stratified politically, and even the most minor standout for a candidate can be like herding cats. Ordering pizza can become a Maoist like experience in self criticism. Democrats pride themselves on their individualism which ironically can quickly become groupthink. But there will be time for stringing together metaphors over the next several months of the campaign, so onto the candidates.



Biden 250-1
I like Joe Biden, in fact of all the candidates he is likely to be the most qualified to be the leader of the free world. That being said, that means you are likely screwed as far as electability. Joe likely has the greatest scope of knowledge on foreign affairs of this crew, and of the judiciary. Perhaps, Joe's biggest flaw is his mouth, he just does not know to stop when he's ahead. Even when he was trying to compliment a fellow candidate he screwed up, in 1988 when he ran out of things to say from his own head, he just used other peoples. Watching Joe Biden speak is like watching the Devil Rays play baseball, "wow, look at that talent" and then you just see them running into outs, overthrowing the ball into the dugout, dropping pop ups, well, you get the picture.


Clinton 4-1
Hillary's most positive characteristic in my mind is that she is the toughest candidate of the bunch. That likely is also her most negative in many folk's minds. Put simply, when a man is tough it's a positive character trait when a woman is, well you know the rest. I honestly have never heard of a person who people have such stratified views of. One who brings so much energy to an opposition and can be a cash cow to both sides in the issue. As smart, tough and Machiavellian as she is, I can't see how she could possibly win the general election. A lot of people who are a lot smarter than me and observe politics for a living insist she can win, but I'm not sure if they are talking to people a. outside the beltway, b. outside New York c. are middle class and working class men. Mrs. Clinton has done quite a job in the Senate, both on a national level and especially for her state in bringing home the bacon.


But here's the rub, being Mrs. Clinton can be both a blessing and a curse. Bill has monstrous charisma, exudes it, sure there are many who hate him but there are many more who he has inspired. Bubba's the guy you want to send to meet an alien invasion and it's likely his proclivity for the ladies is what kept him from being a great President. This curse of below the belt rascality haunts not only his own presidency but the potential presidency of his wife. It does not speak of her loyalty but of her failure to act to protect herself. And how does someone who can't protect herself, protect her country.


When you see Hillary speak next to her husband, you also feel her weaknesses, her inability to "feel our pain" to connect and to understand. There are not many people that can feel the extremes of emotion when they even hear the name "Hillary" and oh did I mention she would be the first woman on the top of a major ticket? And the fact that she is the only type of baseball fan worse that a Yankees fan, an opportunistic Yankees fan. Likely more on Hillary later on, she'll still be winter material. An the right wing conspiracy anxiously hopes for your nomination.




Edwards 3-1
If John Ritter had lived, he could have played former Senator Edwards in the TV movie, "If You Slip and Fall":The John Edwards Story. John Edwards despite being behind now in the polls is my favorite to get the nomination. I just see some machinations happen with Clinton being the northeastern female candidate and Obama being a Black candidate, that the white male with the big money ends up on top. Crazy talk, you say. John Edwards, the multimillionaire trial lawyer is on to something, there are rich people and there are poor people. OK, let's say this though, the man made his own money and few people quibble with people who work hard, get an education and make it in America. If he can make it seem that he wants to facilitate more opportunity for all and not just confiscate money from those who have to move to those who don't he could do well. Edwards has a certain boyish charm and some hard luck stories in his family that will resonate with the readers of Redbook and Reader's Digest, including a bunch of people in Iowa and New Hampshire. But John for the love of God, why didn't you read the intelligence on Iraq? Did you have something more important to do at the time? Nonetheless, John Edwards, in my mind is the likely nominee for the Democratic party.

Kucinich 150-1
There is a Dennis Kucinich wing to the Democratic party. Often they are the ones who are known as the America blamers by the right wing. Also on college campuses where young and not so young who have yet to sell out to corporate interest, shirts and ties, paying taxes and regular paychecks can still live the dream of a true left liberal residing in the White House. A friend describes him as honest and the only candidate with fire in his belly. He has the blessing and curse of being true to himself. I imagine that Dennis will likely do well in the liberal bastions of Amherst, Berkeley, Santa Cruz, Cambridge, anywhere that has a large number of vegans and elsewhere will be trounced. Caucuses can always make things interesting for "fringe" candidates as Pat Robertson showed in Iowa in 1988 or Pat Buchanan in 1992. He would be the shortest president ever that did not write under the name Publius and likely the first that could be on an episode of Star Trek without any makeup. His unlikely nomination would be a disaster of the utmost proportion and likely move the Democratic party to irrelevancy.

Dodd 350-1
To me the Dodd campaign is similar to the Tommy Thompson campaign of the Republicans. Why? I got nothing against him, but he looks like he should be running for high school principal and not President. Would he run Gitmo like a in-school suspension? Would al-Qaeda operatives have to write an essay explaining their misbehavior? The highlight of any Dodd campaign will likely be a well articulated albeit pandering debate in Spanish with Bill Richardson about Latino issues. All well and good but suffice to say, Hispanics aren't likely to make the entire difference in the primaries and among those who will vote and are citizens, most are able to understand what you say in English and are more concerned about issues like schools, crime, national defense and the things that all Americans care about than being able to articulate the material in the language of our parents and grandparents. The reaction to many when hearing about Dodd running, "really, Chris Dodd, the other guy from Connecticut?"

Gravel 500-1
Mike Gravel is the Democrat's answer to Jim Gilmore. If you could somehow wrap Gilmore up with a pinch of Ron Paul. After 77 years of life he has finally perfected his mustache and he was ready to go out and make some noise. Mike has the benefit of age and knowing he can't win to go out and speak his mind and not raise any money at all. Gravel hearkens back to a time where a populist could be a liberal and vice versa, benefiting from the fact that he is an adopted Alaskan. Made some hay in his comments opposing the war on Iraq, has authentic liberal credentials for his actions opposing the Vietnam War and the draft. Getting his final 15 minutes in.


Richardson 150-1
I guess as the first Latino candidate for President, I should really be paying more attention to Bill Richardson. As a southwesterner with executive and legislative experience and a possibility of mobilizing those Latinos (mostly Mexican Americans) who have not voted into voting, Bill seems to be running for vice president, someone who could balance out the ticket from some of these "crazy liberals from the northeast." In some wacky turn of events, (being that he's Governor of New Mexico) Richardson also may have the most foreign policy experience of any of the candidates. The biggest problem with Bill despite not being sure if he signed a professional baseball contract or not is how would the nation ever trust a guy to keep a nation secure when he couldn't really hold it down at the Department of Energy. Seems like a likable guy, who would do well it caucuses if he could sit around and connect with everyone. Of the entire field, the one I would like to have over for dinner. Not likely to be around in February, but look for Bill to play a part in a potential Democratic administration if only because he can pronounce the capitals of all of the countries in the Axis of Evil.


Obama 3-1
"Let me be clear", (one of Obama's favorite transition phrases) Obama is this election cycle's Howard Dean. I see these odds going up quick. An early favorite, raising tons of money where it has never come from before, stoners cutting down to give a little, college kids dipping into the tip jar, not so youthful idealists giving their little in the sea of PAC money, bundling, rangers and pioneers. It is downright humbling to see this participatory democracy in action.

Barack should be "my guy", not far from my age, a hard working, smart, fast riser who worked in community organizing. Obama is a brilliant rhetorician (When Barack spoke at the 2004 Democratic convention, he literally brought me to tears in public), with a very flimsy resume to be commander in chief. While this resume is strong enough to be a Harvard professor, or maybe even get the fortuitous opportunity to run against cuckoo Alan Keyes for US Senate, his meteoric rise likely ends somewhere halfway through the campaign when a lot of Democrats realize that he's probably unelectable in the general election. Bring out the fact that a. he's Black b. his middle name is Hussein and c. used drugs as a kid, d. he lived in "foreign countries with all them foreigners" and e. any other stupid shallow fact that the American public seems to latch on to and the tide begins to turn.

Now the real concerns that Americans can have, a genuine lack of experience. Some may say that JFK had the same lack of experience and his charisma and his ability to inspire a generation is still revered by many, but in a time of "war on terror", economic upheaval and globalization, it's likely that even those that will look beyond the surface qualities will finally cast a vote for him. And if so, the Republican machine will have him in their sights. I love Obama, I see him carrying the torch of that liberal lion Ted Kennedy for the next 30 years in the Senate, a super intelligent guy, a quick study who believes in America and creating opportunity for all American people, but an Obama presidential campaign is a disaster waiting to happen.



And we're off, look for weekly updates and ramblings.