Monday, February 18, 2008

On President's Day

3oo MILLION
As of today there are over 303 million people in this country. Of those about 2.2 million are incarcerated, about a quarter of this number are children and likely another quarter are between 18 and 35, leaving roughly 150 million people that are eligible for the Presidency. OK, that's an exaggeration, exclude non-citizens and many others and the number is actually much smaller, but my point is, after all the millions of dollars spent we are basically down to our last three candidates, a woman who is the spouse of an ex-President, likely one of the most divisive figures in recent political history, a young Black guy with a thin resume and an old, angry white guy that conservatives don't really seem to like.

So those are the options. Barring a run by a strong independent, this is what it boils down to. The desk and button get handed from GW to someone a little higher on the US leadership depth chart, but still not anywhere close to the first string. The strength of a Washington, the wisdom of a Jefferson, the moral fortitude of a Lincoln, the creativity of a Teddy Roosevelt is devoid from these candidates that will attempt to reconfigure the US economy, build the US image in the world, protect the country from enemies foreign and domestic and ensure the economic security and healthcare of a rapidly aging population. So here, we go, certainly there have been accidental presidents that have brought great success to this country and our hope is that this will be the same.

PASSING THE TORCH
So Mitt's millions and miscellaneous movement towards the right didn't secure him the Republican nod for the Presidency. The savior of the Winter Olympics (assisted in a great way by the US taxpayer) and part time Governor of Massachusetts couldn't triple axel his way to Pennsylvania Avenue.

I'm unsure what this newfound darling of the conservative movement will do for his next move. He has endorsed McCain which is the non-astronomical equivalent of the sun rising but it remains unclear if he has the chops for the vice presidency under an old and battered Senator McCain. It seems that chief of staff which would likely be the best position considering his business leadership background would be "beneath him", but certainly he would do well in the cabinet in some function.

I think the idea of the CEO presidency should be put to rest. Certainly there is room for various business leadership models in government, but the techniques of Bain Capital can only go so far in leading the American people. Certainly George W. tried to use the business model of governing but made the mistake of taking bad counsel, and in fact there is no golden parachute for the Commander in Chief. No reward for failure as you move on to your next corporate governance position. Usually it is not the CEO's job to inspire your "customers", the job of President goes beyond cost cutting, supervision and marketing.

THE RUMBLE CONTINUES
The battle for second place continues. A close run that will likely end up at the convention and decided in a somewhat undemocratic way by party bigshots outside the troublesome swarm of hoi polloi that will flood into Denver in August. So the show is on. Today's battle was around a candidate's wife that is proud of her husband and the Senator's bidenesque use of language from his friend Deval Patrick. Certainly, now we are talking about the issues. You know, the things that separate Senator Clinton from Senator Obama as the best representative of the Democratic party. The circular firing squad begins to take shape.

A year or so ago, it seemed that the Democrats would walk into the White House, as Bush fatigue turned into exhaustion, now it's hard for me to envision how either of these candidates, once the 527's and media machines get fired up can possibly beat a McCain who while disliked by the right has unquestionable appeal as a war hero and patriot. So if you're either senator how do you sell yourself to the American people? How do you appeal to people who want someone who is tough on national security and terror but still want to be inspired to believe in America again. Bush fatigue will not bring enough energy to those beyond the activists on the left to bring you to the White House, a real connection with the American people is the only path.

SEPARATION
The race for the Republican nomination is just about sewn up. With Governor Huckabee a mere speedbump at this time, Senator McCain after being declared politically dead only several months ago will walk into the hall in Minneapolis and be annointed the GOP candidate for the White House. Gone are the candidates of the hour, Rudy G. gone the way of a Tito Jackson album, Mitt the way of Vanilla Ice and Mike Huckabee the way of some guy who thought weight loss, guitar playing and baptist preaching would bring him to the secular promised land of politics.

Also gone is the McCain of 2000, the attractive, maverick candidate whose strokes of independence repulsed the "conservative" stalwarts that brought the mess of George W. into office. McCain soon saw the "errors" of his way and largely bended to the neo-con's and theocon's that provide the rock of the Republican party. Soon he was eating cake and hugging the President while still remaining a bit of maverick tendency around some issues that still got stuck in the craw of conservative activists during the primaries, but not enough to keep him from reaching the pinnacle through the support of the non-lunatic fringe of his party.

Now McCain has to make a decision. A move to kiss and make up with the Republican party base or a move towards the center to sew up the White House for the party. The rhetoric that will come from the candidate in the months leading up to the convention will be telling, will it be concilatory, a willingness to work across the aisle, something that might be attractive to moderates and independents or will it be continuing the business as usual and paralytic dysfunction of American government? John McCain has the benefit of campaigning to the middle, the rumored conservative staying home on Election Day is not going to happen in the face of a Clinton or Obama opposition. The choice of a vigorous, moderate vice presidential candidate would certainly bring energy to the general campaign. Senator McCain has an opportunity to save his party from the cuckoo's and win the White House simultaneously, the choice is his.

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