Day 3: The Stomach Flu

We tried to get an early start this morning but during our bagel trip, Elena threw up so we came back to do some laundry. Met a fellow Red Sox fan at the bagel store, a young kid from DC, the nation grows. We tried to make it out again and Elena threw up again in the knapsack and all over my back. OK, today looks like a washout, it may just be NFL football in someone else’s basement. But he has a 50 inch TV so it may not be a washout altogether. And they sell Yuengling at the Safeway. Hopefully everyone will be healthy enough that I can start that million person “USA, USA” chant. NOTE: Now we all have some version of the stomach flu, hopefully we’re all healed by Tuesday.

Obama: Cult v. Substance

There is something discomforting and odd to the Obama phenomena. He has been the darling of the liberal press, first because the mainstream press while not likely “liberal” itself consists of mostly liberal (at least in the classical sense) people outside of Fox and talk radio. Liberal meaning a constant interest in change and accepting difference, a certain curiosity in life as opposed to the more accurate leftist/socialist label that is put on the press by the right wing. This press was interested in Obama because he was interesting, not only a good narrative but smart, well educated and the ability to communicate beyond soundbites and clichés. McCain had a great narrative as well, and was the only Republican with a chance to win but he ran away and took bad advice to go to the right, rather than the vital center that had fed his whole career.

Outside of the press adoration there was a strange public adoration by Obamamaniacs. For people of color it was a transformative candidate, beyond the poverty pimping and race card playing to a man being judged by the content of his character, his intelligence and talents. For left liberals there was a change from the odd last eight years of administration and for those far to the left (that saw Clinton as a conservative) a possible end to some 40 years of conservative presidencies (outside of the Carter outlier). For the young and even Generation X it was the potential election of one of their own.

But like I said for many of the deciding votes that put Obama over the edge it was just the change that people felt was needed. A sinking economy was what put people over the edge and the seeming addled commentary by McCain and his followers that the economy’s fundamentals were strong. We who lean to the left should always remember that it was a single digit swing that led to the Obama victory and that the tough decisions that will need to be made will lead to further defections from this vital middle.

My initial observation is that there are too many people who are putting their faith in the man, rather than the management and leadership of the system. The number of folks with Obama wear and jewelry is incredible, albeit the inauguration is a celebration of a historic event and not the kickoff of a cult of personality. There are more images of the leader than any other leader this side of Pyongyang. I mean, t-shirts, hats, necklaces, sweatpants, sweatshirts, etc. I’m a man who holds on to clothes for a long time, and it’s hard for me to think of my Obama knit cap during a future Jeb Bush administration. There is a tremendous amount of Obama gear around the city, including Obama/Biden earrings. I’m holding out for the Biden story telling doll.

I’m afraid of people’s disappointment. That a President Obama will not be able to pull the magic that people think he will be able to do. I face the same frustration with some Christians who will pray for money or for God to help them through some magic or miracle, rather than praying for the strength or wisdom to make these decisions. It will take some fierce effort and wait for it, some sacrifice to help make things change. After everything is swept up and the port a johns are put away the work begins. There likely will be millions of disappointed people, frustrated with the speed of change, the seeming same old same old in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and a deepening economic recession based on some real issues.

The father of the Red Sox fan had flown in from overseas on business. He commented that at the airport he had never seen so many overseas visitors and that most were here to see Obama inaugurated, now that’s something. You have a whole world, well at least those with the money to travel to the US who may be thinking the same thing, that’s a lot of weight on one man’s shoulders.

Listening to the right wing radio already talk about the failure of the Obama administration, you hear the other side. The frustration with the anointed Obama, the frustration of looking at a man who some authentically feel to be too inexperienced, too liberal/socialist or more disgustingly too black, too foreign or too Muslim.

I feel that Obama has the substance to get the job done, the willingness to listen to other smart people and make the right final decision, the understanding that his constituency is the entire United States of America and in fact the world. The world is going to have to be patient, these growing pains of globalization and misorientation of resources towards the extreme wealthy are going to take time to iron out. All the brilliant rhetoric in the world won’t help.

The Coming Wage Deflation

I’ve been thinking about this for a while. The auto industry has come hat in hand to Congress making some political missteps along the way. What kind of auto industry doesn’t understand the right political move here, a convoy of their products heading through various states and having various events in factories in the states where they make their products. Oh, I guess the type of auto industry that makes crappy products that no one wants to buy.

You’ll hear everyone screaming about the UAW and the onerous contracts that make each car $1800, $2200 or $3 million dollars more expensive than their Japanese equivalent. Most of these are due to “legacy” costs, the costs of health care and pensions of those damn retirees who just keep living longer. Of course, all these contracts were made in good faith (Disclosure: As a grad student I was a member of the UAW) but made at a time where no one could see that Americans would go and buy Hondas and Toyotas that were more reliable. The US companies continued to make SUV’s and trucks that were great, but since few of us work on farms and we continue to drive farther and farther for work, these options didn’t make the sense of buying a Civic and knowing it wouldn’t be in the shop 6 times a year.

Recently some Republican legislators by Bob Corker (dooshbag-Tenn.) have come to say that there should be no bailout unless the unions agreed to terms similar to those of the Japanese companies that are running factories in you guessed it, Tennessee and other southern states. So essentially, you have a Republican senator leading a movement to have American wages determined in the boardrooms of Tokyo. It would make one wonder which side of the desk the winning side was on the USS Missouri in 1945. It’s enough to make your head swim.

I’m not one to say that these agreements don’t put American automakers at a competitive disadvantage but to blame the terrible planning and implementation on workers is just insane. And the fact is, they signed the contracts. What is scary is not so much these companies going the way of horse glue factories, but the effects that good, strong unions and high pay have had on the rest of the working public. The benefits and pay levels that many Americans now take for granted came from competition for workers with these companies that are now coming to pass.

So the economy retools in the next few years, there is the potential for wage deflation, that is fewer benefits and less pay for the same or equivalent positions that may actually require more education and qualifications, for most gone are the days you could walk out of high school and get a good job for the rest of your life.

What the danger here is, is the threat to the whole middle class. A class of people who have already overextended themselves to overreach to the class above will now likely have to stretch farther to own homes, get health care, care for both their children and their parents. We lose sight of this as we get frustrated with what seems the outrage of unions that protect the worst employees and continue to get high wages on the taxpayer’s dime while the layoffs continue across the country in other businesses.

Let’s remember that during this crisis, the big banks and the big moneyed class are starting to restructure themselves as well, using huge taxpayer bailouts and the gun to the head of the American government to fiercely protect the ultra rich, likely at the hands of the middle class.