The Politics of Free Stuff
OK, I’m about to piss a bunch of my friends off. In a strange turn of life, and probably as a very
intentional building of a bubble of really caring and generous people, I have a
tendency to be one of the more “moderate” people in most of my social occasions.I know the counter arguments, and the arguments that I'm a upper middle class spoiled brat, but I earned every rung of that ladder so y'all can kiss my butt.
There are a lot of lefty ideas out there that are entering
the mainstream of the Democratic party as the party lurches left. These are mainly around the growth of social
services which some define as a social safety net and others in the electorate describe
as socialism. The issue is many of the voters
in primaries lean left and aren’t necessarily looking at the general
election. In fact because we have been
so much concentrating on our bubbles it is nearly possible to ascertain what
the majority will vote for. For example
how the hell could the melted creamsicle possibly win the electoral college
majority in this country. Blame it on Russia, voter suppression, basic electoral/geographical
math, but the necessity to win some Midwestern states and perhaps Florida/North
Carolina are critical to winning Presidential elections. And these states do not lean politically like
the more liberal northeast and west coast Democratic poles.
Many of the programs mentioned by the left of the party are
not considered leftist in the democratic socialist countries of western Europe
where high levels of taxation and of services are expected. But for a great deal of the United States
they are shocking and I imagine the level of taxation needed to pay for these
programs would be shocking as well. As a
matter of fact, even getting to a balanced budget under our current system would
probably be an unacceptable tax hike for most Americans. The cost of these programs is astronomical, many will argue and probably have a point,
that in the long term people would actually save money. So my arguments here are mostly that it is
bad politics although as America’s last living fiscal conservative (I actually
believe in increased taxes to pay the bills we have now) There are some that think soaking the rich in
taxation will pay for it all, but the math does not work, even a seizure of
wealth a la the Bolsheviks would not make up enough funding to make this happens
despite what any senator from a small relatively wealthy northeast state would
tell you.
I do have some opinions.
Some have to do with the oft-quoted moral hazard that economists bring
up, others with the fact that Clubber just thinks there is a budget fairy that
brings free shit. Number one on the GOP
dance card is going to attack the Democrats running on all levels for
socialism, although their fiscal conservative card is bankrupt. That's what I'm really talking about here, there is one job for the Democratic party right now, defeat Trump and Trumpism. Restructuring of social safety nets will just have to wait, as important as they are. If the GOP can tie Democrats, socialism and a possible creating of an economic crater, then say hello to a more empowered President Trump for a second term. It's our Achilles heel as Democrats, good is never good enough.
So here are some uneducated opinions on the
political ramifications of some of the more “socialistic” reforms being
suggested by major Presidential candidates, some of which would have been saved
for bong infested, smoke filled dorm rooms at Oberlin not too many years ago.
I think we can do a lot better job with our social safety
nets and many of these infrastructure investments are necessary for the future
moral and economic health, so I’m aiming at those that are just political non-starters
.
Health Care
This is something I have a lot of experience with. I’ve used more health care in the last three
years than most people will use in a life time.
I’m also blessed enough to work for government and have a strong union
(and my wife for government as well) and have really great health insurance. This health insurance sent me to a month of
care (and many months of follow up care) at two of the best hospitals in the
world. This is really remarkable, and it
probably ended up costing under a thousand dollars in out of pocket co-pays
along the way. We also have had two
children born for like 20 bucks a piece out of pocket. I want everyone to have this level of
care. BUT.
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| Sanders 20 20 |
It is 1/5 of the economy and something that cannot turn on a
dime. The path to single payer,
government supported health care under the best economic and political
conditions is an arduous one. The government
is really good at writing checks, social security has prevented millions of
elderly and disabled people from living lives of abject poverty. Medicare has provided health care to millions
of the elderly.(and unlike social security, even current medicare is not supported solely by that small premium you pay every pay period, it is a tremendous regular budge cost) And like today, many
voters opposed these programs that are now important to support of themselves
or older and infirm family members. However
FDR and LBJ are not walking through that door. The machinations through the senate are nearly impossible for a Sanders (and everyone who has lurched to the left) quick change to medicare for all. For the electorate even a change to the Affordable Care Act, (which initially was hatched by conservative think tanks when being conservative meant more than just burning shit down and was support by noted chameleon and magic underwear model Willard Romney) was met with strong opposition, only an amazing effort at political jiu jitsu saw passage and even then in a watered down version. It required horror of horrors, an individual mandate, you know personal responsibility. What was missing was a public option (skewered by the nominally democratic Joe Lieberman from the Insurance Capital of America) that could provide an option for individuals and small businesses to access an affordable option to provide healthcare to themselves and employees. It was a continues to be the best first step to universal health care. An interim step over a much longer journey.
Politics is about money and fear. The idea that we can shift to a magical world where everyone receives health care funded by the government in the very near future involve both of those elements. If the Democratic presidential candidate wants to say goodbye to the few union votes left in these critical state with electoral votes, the first thing they should do is promote medicare for all, the fear that the GOP will put in the hearts will have them voting Republican for another decade as they feel their current strong private health care insurance will erode, as well as with the elderly who will be regaled with stories on Fox News showing lines of unworthy Mexicans, hookers and drug addicts fighting for the attention of the health care providers that they desire. In a post-truth America these are large pockets of voters.
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| Dude, stop yelling at me |
Some of the candidates are already figuring this out. The idea of a public option that competes on the free market (even if this doesn't pass in the current configuration of Congress) is a strong one. It will resonate with voters, and provide additional access and has the additional element of not being political suicide.Sanders and other have said the cost savings to the consumer will be much greater than the cost of the tax increase on the middle class, but that makes the assumption that salaries will increase due to the lack of businesses having to pay for employee health care, if you believe that, I have a seat at my card table for you.
Cancelling Student Debt
The price of higher education has become astronomical. There was a time not long ago where someone could live very frugally, work two jobs all summer and a full time job during the school year with limited financial assistance and pay to go to community and state college (by using a monthly payment plan), work in restaurants to avoid food bills, you may have to go part time a bit, take a semester off here and there,crash on people's couches, rent a room in a family house, use the books at the library and get occasional food from a pantry but it could be done. I know it could because I did it. It may as well be a hundred years ago as the annual cost of higher education has gone from the price of a used chevy chevette to the price of a brand new SUV. At the same time, most good careers with family sustaining wages (outside of a few careers in selected trades with a relative cap on the number of jobs available) require post secondary education. This has forced many students and families to take out enormous loans that mortgage their futures. While most of the numbers will tell you even with this debt it is a long term positive investment, the beginning of adult life is shackled to a monthly payment when you are least likely to afford. The matter is even worse for students who don't earn a credential or have been conned by a private profit institution that overcharged them with little chance of actual career placement. The costs of higher ed have gone up for a lot of reasons, highly paid administration, much greater amenities ( I challenge you to go back to the public campus you may have attended or have friends that attended, they are palaces compare to the Stalinist architecture of the 80s and 90s) and just general inflation, making it a near necessity to take out loans. BUT
Student loan debt is estimated at 1.5 TRILLION dollars, that's a lot to dump on a government that is already running record deficits and as with health care mentioned above is not something that can be paid for by just soaking the rich or even again confiscating wealth, which I don't even think happened in World War II where marginal tax rates for the wealthiest Americans neared 100%.. Again this is hard sell to taxpayers, it is difficult to explain to a guy cutting sheet metal in Erie, Pennsylvania that his tax dollars should be spent on some kid who studied french literature at Cornell at 60K/year plus using their excess checks to spend spring break at Cancun harassing girls from Vassar and spending a thousand dollars plus a semester on chicken wings and pizza while reading Ayn Rand. I mean these attractive Republican talking points just write themselves. It's going to make Joe the Plumber look like nothing. And what is to be said for those families and individuals who took out second mortgages, got second jobs, etc and sent their kids to more affordable educational opportunities. I mean I at least Sen Warren's plan is just supposed to cost taxpayers 210 billion dollars (50K@42 million if I did my math right). It is one of those things that will just be seen as patently unfair to those who feel people knew what they were doing when they took out those loans.
And what to be said about the idea of future college attendance? Is that all free as well? Post secondary affordability needs to be addressed. Young (and old) people should have access to education that will allow them to be financially successful in life. Largely this is a state issue where of course in many state subsidies to public education have been dropping for thirty years, certainly the federal govt can (and has) support those goals of affordable higher education, but cancelling student debt is an election loser. It is intended to get millennials off there ass and at the polls, as if having a fascist dingaling for President isn't enough, but among people who actually vote, it's a real loser. Find different messaging around affordability. As I tell my kids, if anything says it's free it's really expensive
So much for now, again, this is mostly a political view, not a policy view, most of these large infrastructure issues like health care and education should really be addressed collectively through government involvement, they are impossible to afford as a small group or individual. This isn't fucking Little House on the Prairie.
In a future edition I'll address reparations, child care, guaranteed basic income, and if I can even start to understand it, the Green new deal and any other political losers I can think of.
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